Book review of Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs: Financial Express 25th/26th April 2026

 Risk, Resilience, and the Wall Street Pecking Order: Lessons from Lloyd Blankfein

Goldman Sachs is one of the few investment banks that stood out at the time of the financial crisis of 2008. Much of this resilience can be attributed to Lloyd Blankfein, who was heading the bank at that time. Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs is his story. Blankfein takes readers through the important stages of his life with a distinct sense of humour. Like when he was asked by CNBC of being worried about angry mobs storming his house, his reply was that he had a doormat.

His life story is not very different from other people who made it big from rather modest beginnings. Starting from scratch, so to say, he managed a seat in Harvard from where he went on to work with J Aron, which was a commodity trading firm. His transition to Goldman Sachs happened when J Aron was acquired by GS. Blankfein describes the extremely illuminating hierarchy of prestige on Wall Street, which Goldman Sachs also followed.

Investment bankers sit highest in the food chain, followed by traders. Within traders, equity traders are higher placed than those dealing in fixed income. Within fixed income, longer duration bond traders were higher in pecking order than short-term traders dealing with the money market. But all these were more important than currency or commodity traders. Also, there was a prestige gap between traders who took risks and sales people who brought in business. It would be interesting to see if such hierarchies exist in broking houses and banks in the Indian context.

Wall Street Food Chain

Blankfein’s biggest challenge at Goldman Sachs once at the top was handling the financial crisis, which he describes as a ‘double header’. The media and regulators were worried about the existential crisis of all investment banks, as it was the order of the day for them to come tumbling down with the meltdown. This was something that was managed by the firm due to some smart thinking even before the crisis. But, more importantly, he highlights how the reputation issue was tougher. While there was admiration and awe to begin with when the firm went through the period successfully, some were aghast at the ‘how’ of it, which gave way to wild speculation.

The clue, according to him, was the conscious strategy of risk management at the time of the crisis as the company had been evaluating the mortgage values of their portfolio even before the problem came up. This was important because they were able to smell the danger before it set in. By January 2007 they were quite neutral in terms of positions on these exposures. Ironically, the author points out, that even the regulators were not aware how the defaults on subprime mortgages would have spillover effects on the AAA-rated securities. This is a lesson for any financial institution, which should be able to not just smell a crisis but be prepared for it with the risk practices in place.

Blankfein’s contribution was that he was a kind of contrarian in the way in which he operated. While GS was known to be a firm which took bold bets, his approach, given his background, was to be a worrier and not a warrior. By focusing continuously on the tail risks, he insisted on hedging all the way, which was something that helped the firm in tough times. He believed in the line: given enough time, everything will happen! Hence the department tried to account for all contingencies. This led to GS taking insurance from AIG and then further taking CDS insurance against risk of default on the part of AIG.

At a more global level, the author talks of the US economy and capitalist culture which is set around risk, resilience and recovery, helping it rebound fast successfully. This is something that is encouraged by the superstructure which actually helps to bring out the animal spirits in the entrepreneurial class. If systems are open and encourage enterprise, one can come out of a crisis and do very well.

ESG Critique

Steve Jobs did what he did after he was fired from Apple (which he rejoined); and the same holds for Jamie Dimon who had a forced exit from Citi Bank. He attributes resilience more to having better understanding of risk which is often pushed back by human nature and emotion. Interestingly, Blankfein makes a comparison between centralised decision making, as seen in China, and those based on myriads of decisions in a market economy like USA. He believes that the latter is better and makes better decisions.

China’s way of doing business in a centralised manner is not efficient and will show fissures in the longer run. There would be a large number of supporters for this view as the economy today is no longer in the same position as it was, say, a decade back. A market system identifies mistakes and forces change better. Hence the information superhighway propagated by Al Gore would have worked less efficiently in case it was governed by more of a technocratic than democratic regime.

Now, the author takes a rather provocative view towards the end in his ruminations where he openly talks against the language of stake holding as it muddies the water around the respective responsibilities of government, corporations and nonprofit sector. He believes that the fad for ESG investing, which puts the largest asset managers in the position of pushing for various kinds of policies, seems to be misguided.

It is, in his view, asking finance to step in because politics does not produce the desired outcomes. He is all for taxing and regulating oil extraction. But asking Exxon to justify their existence by building windmills is not in order. This is a powerful and bold message, which few corporates are willing to speak about, however much they might feel strongly about it. This view will find a lot of support for sure.

Streetwise is not a book which teaches CEOs how to do business, though there are valuable tips to be taken for sure. He does believe that his approach was more of partnership with colleagues which involved cajoling, socialising and sharing information. Sounds the right way to go given that today’s generation deserves more understanding to get the best out of them.

Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs
Lloyd Blankfein
Orion Ignite
Pp 416, Rs 799

Are freebies really a curse? Business Line 25th April 2026

 https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/are-freebies-really-a-curse/article70902677.ece

Where will the rupee go from here? Indian Express 22nd April 2026

here is little clarity over the conflict in West Asia. Any news of escalation pushes up the cost of crude oil and puts pressure on the rupee, while signs of a truce work the other way. Therefore, volatility is likely to remain.

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/where-will-the-rupee-go-from-here-10649042/

 

Why de-dollarization might not really work at global level: Free Press Journal 22nd April 2026

 

Inflation Expectations: What are these and do they really play a role in the Indian economy? Mint 20th April 2026

 https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/inflation-expectations-indian-economy-rbi-monetary-policy-businesses-consumers-price-levels/amp-11776348299173.html

Monsoons even more important today: Financial Express 15th April 2026

 Agriculture has witnessed a decline in share in GDP by ~8% over the last two decades, mainly due to higher growth in the services sector. There have been limits to agricultural growth given the area under cultivation and the productivity levels. Yet, it is the fulcrum for overall growth prospects.

This is because it dominates in terms of employment. Thus, income generated in this sector would be critical for defining the consumption and savings patterns in the coming months. The sector is still heavily dependent on rainfall with around 55-60% of the kharif output being exposed to irrigation facilities. More importantly, the spread is uneven across crops—rice has higher access with around 70% being covered, with pulses at the other end withwn less than 30-35%, and oilseeds and cotton in the middle with around 55% and 50% respectively. The latter will be more vulnerable, as traditionally, production falls when rainfall is sub-optimal. 

Two issues have come up recently which are presently potential red flags that could be raised post June, when the monsoon arrives—the first being the possibility of El Nino or winds that typically herald a weaker monsoon. May-July would need to be monitored to keep a check, and the second half of the year could be vulnerable if this occurs. The second is the initial Skymet forecast which expects monsoon to be 94% of normal. While it is too early to get the right picture, the fact that it is lower than normal requires close monitoring. 

In fact, any forecast of the monsoon at present is just too preliminary; however, having such forecasts is necessary to prepare the farm economy. In fact, a normal monsoon is often a necessary though not sufficient condition for a good kharif crop. While the aggregate number is important for a macro picture, the spread is more important. This can be gauged from the rather diverse access to irrigation for different crops, making the spread across regions and crops vital. 

Crops grown along rivers, especially in the north, tend to be less dependent on rains. The same may hold largely for crops grown in the coastal areas as the south west monsoon winds blow across this region before moving to the interiors. Hence, shortfall in rains in states like Punjab and UP may not really matter for the rice crop. However, the interiors become vulnerable and the Deccan Plateau region is always the area of focus as crops ranging from cotton (Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana) to oilseeds (MP, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Rajasthan) and pulses (Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan) are grown here. Further, some of these crops are grown in the rain shadow area, where weak south west monsoon winds could result in the rainfall losing intensity as they cross the mountains and move to the interiors. Here, states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh would be affected. 

The kharif crops account for roughly 50% of overall agricultural output—they determine growth the sector accordingly. However, monsoon deficiency of any significant magnitude has a bearing on the reservoir levels. This is an important indicator of water levels required for drinking (humans and animals) besides defining prospects for the rabi crop, which though less dependent on winter rains does use the resources from these reservoirs. This does not consider other erratic conditions such as excess monsoons which has in the past affected the horticulture output in states like Maharashtra, AP, Karnataka, and Telangana, causing spikes in inflation. 

Hence, monsoon progress is carefully studied and tracked for monetary policy. Interestingly, the monsoon pattern has tended to change due to climate variations with the traditional June-September season being extended to July-October. This has been a slow process and several farmers have not yet adjusted to this transformation—thus,  the sowing pattern tends to get skewed on account of the late monsoon. It’s progress is also important as crops require different levels of precipitation at different stages of flowering. 

All this means is that the aggregate rainfall, though a good indicator, does not tell the entire story. The arrival is important as is the progress. Next, the spread across states is important, followed by the coverage of various crops. But excess rainfall or late withdrawal can damage crops. This position is normally known by October, where other perspective come to the fore. 

The kharif crop, which is harvested from September onwards until November provides a clue on the rural income generated. While there are no official numbers on the rural economy, it is believed that roughly 50% would be coming from the farm sector. This income is important for supporting rural demand, which tends to peak in this period—the harvest cum festival season. Rural demand has supported the FMCG and consumer goods industries in the last two years when urban demand has tended to be weak. Therefore, monsoon is critical for companies planning their output as well as investment. 
The war has already led to prices of oil-related products going up, in turn possibly affecting pesticide and fertiliser prices. Here, the government can help. But when it comes to rainfall, it is beyond the purview of any authority, making the progress of monsoon even more important. 

Getting a grip on the forwards position of RBI: Business Line 11th April 2026

 

War shocks markets, exposing India's economic vulnerabilities: FPJ 8th April 2026

 

RBI Policy provides a practical picture of the road ahead amid West Asia war: Business Standard 8th April 2026

 The RBI policy comes at a time when there is uncertainty on the impact of the war on the economy. However, quite significantly, just before the policy was announced, a ceasefire was struck by the United States (US) with Iran for a fortnight. While it is still uncertain if the ceasefire will mean the end of the war soon, the RBI’s statement provides an official view of how one could look at the next 12 months.

 

The RBI was not expected to touch the repo rate, and a status quo seemed most appropriate under these conditions. The stance, too, has remained unchanged at 'neutral', which is significant because if there was a change indicating future rate action, it could have been interpreted as being hawkish. The tone is nonetheless cautious, which is the right approach given the uncertainty.

There are some signs that the war may have impacted the economy, though it is to early to tell as any data for March pertains to the year gone by that could raise red flags for the current fiscal 2026-27 (FY27). The purchasing manager's indexes (PMIs) look less impressive than in February though well above the level of 50. Goods and services tax (GST) collections were steady in March, but shortage of fuels has led to several units in the hospitality business at the micro level closing down. Petro-based industries are still nervous of their fuel supplies, which will have a bearing on performance in Q1. Air fares have gone up and several companies have announced an increase in their prices. 

Against this background (which is very early), the RBI forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation can be seen. GDP growth for the year has been projected at 6.9 per cent with a downward bias which will be lower than that last year. Significantly growth in Q1 will be low at 6.9  per cent, followed by three sub-7 per cent growth rates that should capture the war disruption impact. 

Inflation, on the other hand, is projected to be 4.6 per cent this year. It does look like that while the war impact has been buffered in to a certain extent. The possible El Nino impact this year, though acknowledged, may not have been part of the forecasts. This is understandable as it is a theoretical possibility only today.

External account

 

The RBI does sound cautious on the external account as this will be the first point of impact. Exports are to get pressurized with the ongoing challenges on the sea routes. Imports shock is more severe as it involves both physical supplies as well as higher prices being paid for these products. 

 

While commenting on the rupee, no specific measure has been announced. This has been the practice where there is intervention whenever required and forex management is seldom a part of the policy. The same holds for liquidity where there is an implicit assurance of supplies as and when required. This is important because any intervention of the RBI in the forex market will mean withdrawal of liquidity, which is then replenished by the central bank. 

he market reaction has been largely unchanged from the time of announcement of the policy, though all the three markets started off better post the ceasefire announcement- stocks, bonds and currency (helped by unwinding of forwards positions too).  

 

Rate cuts can now be ruled out and the question will be more on when there can be a rate hike. A clearer picture will emerge over the next few months. The August policy will have more complete data points when contemplating rate action.

Interview with Mint on war impact on India: Mint 3rd April 2026

 https://www.livemint.com/money/west-asia-war-india-recession-risk-economic-slowdown-madan-sabnavis-household-budgets-job-market-inflation-interest-rate/amp-11775105443794.html