Trump tariff impact: Brace for exchange rate wars too: Business Standard 3rd April 2025

 Three things need to be kept in mind when analysing the impact of the new tariff order imposed by the US. The first is whether higher tariffs will lead to more domestic production in the US. If the price factor kept local production down, then this will help. But the consequence will be higher inflation for sure. 

 

Second, the relative tariffs now imposed across countries matter. Hence, India has to look at competition from countries which attract lower tariff rates in the new regime. The third is whether the relatively smaller countries can scale up to substitute for others. This begs the question as to whether countries have the ability to scale up substantially to substitute other exporters.

What has the US done? 

 

There are new tariff rates announced for 180 countries with the base level being 10 per cent. The tariffs have been fixed at broadly 50 per cent of the rate countries are charging US imports. Therefore, there is a concession reciprocal tariffs structure announced. 

 

China has a higher rate of 54 per cent because the 34 per cent half-tariff will be on 20 per cent imposed earlier. The US has calculated the effective tariff rates on US goods in these 180 countries based on both nominal rates as well as indirect protection provided through different measures. 

Should India be worried? The answer is yes. While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall gross domestic product (GDP) effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2 per cent, assuming exports to US falls by 10 per cent, overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board. 

But the problem will be at the micro level where industries like pharma, electronics, precious stones, readymade garments, engineering, leather goods are concerned. 

 

At the industry level, there will be a hit as other competing exporters to US would rework their models. Indian companies may have to cut on price to retain advantage or hope the rupee depreciates. The latter is possible because high tariffs in US means higher inflation for sure, which will keep rates up and the dollar stronger. But profitability will be under pressure. Also in the present state of intense competition, it will be hard to substitute other markets as all competitors will be working on the same lines. 

MSMEs under pressure

 

In particular, the MSMEs will be pressurised again. They have a major share in exports and are concentrated in the sectors that are going to face higher tariffs. So clearly, the woes of the MSMEs will not end and the government may have to work out a strategy here to protect them. More production linked incentive (PLI)-like schemes is a way out besides the usual channel of credit flows. The entire export strategy needs some serious and fast rethinking. 

 

The financial markets are the ones which will be unequivocally affected. We can be prepared for a more volatile exchange regime as the dollar will keep swinging in both directions during the year. This will mean more Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention for sure, with the proclivity to allow for depreciation to support exports. 

Such a measure be done by probably all other countries as well, which can lead to an exchange rate war besides trade war reminiscent of the Depression time. While this is an extreme situation, it cannot be ruled out.

Further, the US Fed will have to be more gradual on rates as US inflation will rise for sure, as these high tariffs are transmitted. Even if domestic production picks up, it will be at a higher cost as the reason for high imports was to save on costs.

At the global level, slower trade will also mean slower growth, especially for export-oriented economies. There are two possibilities on how the world will react. The first is to also raise tariffs, which can lead to a full-fledged trade war. This could be in pockets but unless countries collaborate, which is unlikely, this may not quite work out. The other is to get into a dialogue with the US, which can be through bilateral talks or country-groups getting together. 

 

As a corollary, countries may start talking to one another to further trade relations keeping US out. This looks more likely. But for sure, this year will be tumultuous on economic grounds.

Taking the tough road: “Brick by Brick” offers insights into building and selling ventures: Book review: Financial Express 30th March 2025

 Brick by Brick by Manish Vij is another rather inspiring book which tells the reader how to move along the road of success when dealing with enterprise. It is based on his experiences over the years of setting up, running and selling firms, which involves the entire spectrum of business. The subtitle includes the term ‘middle-class roots’, which is not very common. The author’s intention must be to convey to the reader that ordinary people can achieve and that it is not imperative to have the ‘inherited advantage’ of birth when it comes to shining in enterprise. Or it could be a strong message to say that if one works hard and shows grit when pursuing a dream, the background does not matter.

The author’s story is not very different from several entrepreneurs who have succeeded in what could be startups. Starting from the launch of kabadibazaar.com from a college hostel, the author launched an array of agencies in different sectors, including letsbuy.com, a prominent e-commerce platform. This can go down as an example of a successful entrepreneur in the internet space where value-added services are provided, and to this extent does not require heavy investment in capital, which is the case in manufacturing. 

The storytelling in this book is about the different issues that come up while being a founder-entrepreneur. His journey through the different ventures he spearheaded involved all the steps of starting an enterprise to the final stage of selling the same to investors. This would mean having the power to germinate the idea and then get in the requisite inputs in the form of capital and people to make it happen and also ensuring that the enterprise is successful enough for investors to be more than willing to pay money for a share of this success.

There are learnings along the way that are important and this is what the author summarises at the end of each of the chapters. There are around 12 specific chapters having takeaways that are summarised at the end. While his stories about the different enterprises he started are personal, the focus is evidently on the specific challenges in each of these endeavours.

To begin with, he believes entrepreneurship is exciting and one has to get their hands dirty. This means that having the mindset is what matters as this may not be everyone’s cup of tea. After selecting the problem which is appealing, one should pursue it after carefully studying the pro and cons. In his case it was the internet-led  industry. Once in, one should be prepared to go till the end and not give up along the way, as there are sure to be challenges. This is why commitment to the enterprise is imperative. This would be the starting point to be successful in any enterprise and it can be inferred that we need grit and resilience to ensure success.

The author also talks of what he calls an irrational self-belief to be the driving factor. One needs to have the belief of being able to do something better than others, which includes not just executing the idea but also bringing out the best service while employing the best team. Any doubt in oneself can put one on the defensive all through. On deeper reflection it can be seen that all successful entrepreneurs in this space have had similar self-belief, which can also border around arrogance at times, as it is necessary to shed modesty to drive one all the way. 

At the same time he talks of never hesitating to ask for help when required and hence one should not be overcome by hubris. This has been useful in all his endeavours, especially when encountering quandries.

At the other end he does talk about how he made successful exits from his ventures when he found the investors who paid the right price. How then does one sell at the right price, especially if there is no distress driving such a step taken? His experience shows that exiting in a bearish market or the start of the bull market is not the right time, though admittedly this is a judgment call that anyone has to take, as often getting the right match will be difficult. His advice also is that one must either undertake a minority sale or a full sale. Selling a majority and retaining a minority works only if the founder is able to detach from the business and work as an executive on day-to-day affairs.

But, more importantly, post exit, the founder must retain the mindset and be ready to hit the ‘start’ button again.
Hence Vij does look back at his story and links every step taken to what is needed to be successful in creating successful businesses. His various manoeuvres into different enterprises make interesting reading and can be inspirational, though admittedly the author must have gone through significant turmoil in the course of these journeys. There are little narratives of his moods and emotions as he went around these myriad steps of setting up, running, negotiating for capital and also selling the ventures.

Today it has become incumbent on several successful entrepreneurs to narrate their stories to set some kind of template for others. The issue is while the qualities that are spelt out are clear and sound very logical, the main question is whether potential entrepreneurs really have this mindset.

In fact, there have been more cases of failure in the startup space in India, which still attracts a lot of young professionals who would rather do something different. All may not have the same fighting spirit and grit that Vij had in his journey. But for sure, the little tales narrated would strike the reader, especially if she is also on a similar path.

Book details:

Title: Brick by Brick: From Middle-Class Roots to Entrepreneurial Success

Author: Manish Vij

Publisher: Penguin Random House

Number of pages: 240

Price: Rs 599

A Peek Into The Future Shows How FY26 Will Be For India: Free Press Journal 29th March 2025

 

here is apprehension about what could happen, and until there is clarity, markets will be jittery. Given this background, the following looks likely to be the state of economic affairs in the country.

As FY25 comes to an end, it is always interesting to conjecture on a practical basis what FY26 would look like. The Indian economy has done rather well in FY25, though the turbulence following Donald Trump taking over as president and talking tough on tariffs has affected financial markets across the world. There is apprehension about what could happen, and until there is clarity, markets will be jittery. Given this background, the following looks likely to be the state of economic affairs in the country.

The overall growth would be stable and move slightly higher in FY26. The main reason is that India is basically a domestic oriented economy where demand is driven by home factors. Therefore, while any hit in foreign trade due to tariffs will affect exports, the impact on the GDP growth would be limited and not be more than 0.2%. Hence, a growth of around 6.6-6.8% would be a conservative estimate for this year. That said, there would be certain sectors at the micro level which will bear the brunt of tariffs as exports get affected. This would be mainly readymade garments, pharma, electronics, engineering and precious stones. These segments would have to be monitored closely for possible impact on exports.

Consumption should be better this year. This would be on account of two factors. First, the government has announced in its budget that there would be a revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore due to the income tax benefits being given, which intuitively means more money in the pocket. While a part would be saved, there would be a larger amount spent. Therefore, there is reason to be sanguine. Second, with inflation coming down, the real purchasing power would improve, leading to higher consumption. While the overall impact may not be one to warrant acceleration, it would mean a gradual upward movement.

Investment so far has been mainly sponsored by the government at the central and state levels. The common explanation given is that when there is excess capacity, especially in the consumer goods segments, there is less incentive to spend more on investment. As consumption picks up, there will be better utilisation of capacity, which, in turn, will lead to upward movement in private investment. This would be good news for the overall growth as well as markets

Inflation would be another positive factor, assuming that the monsoon is normal. Inflation would be averaging 4.7% in FY25 and has been high mainly due to higher food inflation. With food inflation coming down, there would be a positive impact on prices in FY26. The non-food inflation, also called core (which excludes food and fuel), has been stable at 4%. This will mean that there will be few inflationary pressures on the domestic front. The global political situation may not improve, but the crude oil price will probably remain stable in the range of $70-80. This will be partly also due to the demand being lower, given that the global growth is expected to be impacted more by the tariff talk.

Lower inflation will also mean that the RBI will continue to lower interest rates. While the repo rate may be expected to go down to 5.75% by December, it will be driven by data. From the point of view of a saver, the peak rate regime is over. For borrowers, the path of movement has to be monitored. The pattern of the monsoon will be critical in terms of how the RBI lowers the repo rate. The arrival, spread, and intensity of the monsoon are important here, as the RBI tends to be more circumspect around this time of the year to gauge the possible impact of the rains on farm production and inflation. It has been seen that the TOP problem (tomatoes, onions and potatoes prices) has become an annual one due to seasonal changes, which affects these crops during September-October. These prices have the potential to skew food inflation quite sharply.

While all these signals are positive, there are others which would be hard to predict at this stage. First is the state of markets. While improvement in the economy should ideally also be reflected in better earnings of companies, the global factor is hard to predict. Today, the FPI flows have been erratic, based on how strong the articulation of various countries is regarding US policies. This will continue to be uncertain for sure, and hence, the stock market will be hard to conjecture. But given that the Trump tariff issue did lead to markets bottoming out at around 75,000 for the Sensex, an upward movement can be expected.

Second, the value of the rupee would also be guided to a large extent by the global factor. It has been observed that the dollar has been swinging from getting ‘stronger’ to ‘weaker’ based on actions taken by the US on tariffs. The Federal Reserve has also indicated that it will be more in the wait-and-watch mode before going aggressively on rates. A stronger dollar can pull down the rupee, and this is something which ideally should not be the case. But withdrawal of the FPI and a possible higher trade deficit can put pressure on the rupee. Therefore, a range of Rs 86-87/$ looks a fair range as of the present.

Third, the issue of job creation will be interesting. The EPFO data does show that more numbers are being added, which should continue. However, in the organised sector, several companies have announced reductions in staff count in domains such as auto and IT. The threat here is more from the technology side, with the proliferation of AI in several businesses. The logistics and construction industries have added to the headcount in the private sector, though the challenge here is that these jobs are not high-paying. This becomes important in the context of consumption, as such jobs do not give the power of ‘discretionary spending’, which is what the economy requires.

Hence, the overall emerging picture will be one of a resilient economy with a few clouds of uncertainty, especially so as, in a globalised set up, there are bound to be external influences.

Can religious tourism boom? Economic Times 25th March 2025

 

MPC should take savings into account" Financial Express, 24th March 2025

 The credit policy statement overviews the economy, analyses pain points, and delivers a verdict on the repo rate. It also encapsulates the state of the world economy, making the narrative quite comprehensive. One area which could probably be considered for incorporation in the document is savings.

The growth in savings affects banking significantly. Any talk of deposits in terms of growth or composition reflects the circumstances on the savings front. In fact, the major raw material for the banking system is deposits. This element does not find mention in the statement although it is a vital part of the monetary ecosystem.

First, deposits serve as the base for credit generation. Slower growth in deposits relative to credit leads to the second issue of liquidity. Liquidity is always spelt out in the statement as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) underscores how it has evolved during the period under consideration. In fact, any measure to stabilise liquidity is a result of what has been playing in the background — deposits. The basis of having variable rate repo or variable rate reverse repo is dependent on how the deposit factor has played out.

Third, the growth in deposits also has a bearing on what happens to bond yields through the liquidity route. Tightness in liquidity invariably ensures bond yields either stiffen or remain unchanged even if the repo rate is lowered. When the central bank targets the weighted average call rate as part of monetary policy, the state of deposits is again important as it affects liquidity. Therefore, deposits are a very critical part of the liquidity piece.

Deposits are also important as they relate to the transmission process. Very often, the policy statement has spoken of incomplete interest rate transmission. While a part of the lending rate transmission takes place automatically when the repo rate is changed, it is not so for the marginal cost of funds-based lending rate-linked credit. For the needle to move, the deposit rates matter. Therefore, the entire edifice of the efficacy of the repo rate transmission rests on the action taken by banks on the deposit rates. This would, in turn, depend on the rate of growth of deposits.

In fact, in the past three months or so, the RBI has continually tried to plug the liquidity gap caused by slow growth in deposits through various measures before lowering the repo rate. In a way, the precondition for lowering the repo rate to be effective has been met not through the system, but through RBI intervention.

The motivation of changing the repo rate was based traditionally on targeting inflation, though of late, the focus has shifted to growth too. The mandate of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was to target inflation, while the policies prior to its establishment aimed to balance growth and inflation. The MPC also had to ensure a lower repo rate got transmitted to lower lending rates, enabling borrowing and boosting growth. But, progressively, the transmission gets sticky mainly due to problems with deposits. There can hence be a case for the policy statement to evaluate the state of deposits separately.

The credit policy deals with banks in particular, but savings span a wide section of institutions. While banks are the mainstay, migration is seen to other avenues like mutual fund (MF), insurance, pensions, etc. It means savers have tended to turn into investors and venture into the market. Both MFs and the National Pension System have this orientation. This has become more significant during the pandemic when the repo rate was lowered to 4% and deposit rates went down. With the markets doing well, there was a natural tendency for funds to move away from the banking system.

The deposits issue became quite serious in FY25 where the liquidity deficit grew, partly also due to government spending being on the slow track due to elections. This is important from the monetary policy standpoint as the RBI is doing everything to push up liquidity, but it is only scratching the surface. The problem lies in deposits, not growing at a suitable pace.

So it may be relevant for the MPC to deliberate on savings when discussing the repo rate. As the pace of growth in deposits has a direct bearing on liquidity, it would be useful to consider this factor as it will impact the transmission of rates. By focusing more on lowering the repo rate when the system needs central bank support on a daily basis, the onus has shifted to the RBI. This works in the short run, but cannot in the medium term. It is possible that when the new fiscal year starts liquidity will normalise, as demand for credit tends to be low.

But savers are looking at the market, which should be seeing upward traction once India Inc performs better. Such situations can recur more frequently. This may not be unique to India as the monetary policy statements in other countries too do not really talk of this aspect. But then there has been large-scale quantitative easing, which is only being rolled back periodically. In India, there was never such a quantitative easing process. That makes it even more important to consider the deposits factor.

Meaningful Numbers: A Deep Dive Into India’s economic future: Financial Express 23rd March 2025 (Book review)

 ndia has two goals in front of it—a $5-trillion economy and Viksit Bharat, where it is aspired to become a developed economy by 2047. This would also mean reaching this threshold by the 100th anniversary of independence. While talking of these targets everywhere is now very much in vogue, with all future planning being associated with Viksit Bharat, have we stopped to think beyond this number? This is where Prosenjit Datta brings out a remarkable book, titled Will India Get Rich Before It Turns 100?

This is important, as we need to distinguish between a number and the quality of the same. Let us look at the number first. Datta goes through a series of combinations of growth numbers that will make this possible, and depending on how we choose to define the growth rate for GDP or gross national income in nominal terms and population, one can reach the magic figure of high per capita income, which will be close to around $14,000 as it stands today.

However, over the next 20 years, the author explains, the World Bank (which does broad classification of countries based on income) will shift this goalpost ahead and the number can be higher. And, more importantly, if one does similar extrapolations for various countries, such an achievement looks possible at some time or the other. Therefore, the number per se, though important, may hold for several other nations too, which could get there faster.

What is important is the quality of this per capita income. This is where the title comes in where the author speaks of the country becoming rich when we attain this per capita income mark, which would be a futuristic truism. He is less sanguine than other economists on poverty and argues that irrespective of the gauge used on this factor, India has a large number of poor. Here he uses the human development index to prove the point.

Now, often this index is countered as being biased, but a walk along the streets of our metro cities shows that poverty is quite rampant and a serious issue. He focuses on two major issues that we need to address in a big way, which are education and health. This is where the country needs to do more in order to become rich, as there is not much being done, especially at the lower end of the income scale.

This gets linked then to the issue of employment, where he is quite critical of the country’s performance. The author wades through the data as well as approaches of the government survey called the ‘periodic labour force survey’ and that brought out by the CMIE. The conclusions of both the surveys are dissimilar with supporters on each side calling the other optimistic or pessimistic. But any which way, the proof would finally be in how this pyramid of employment evolves over time to support growth.

This is where education comes in, as mere enrolments to the employee’s provident fund could be misleading if the income earned is low due to low skilled jobs being pursued. In fact, he is quite frank while questioning the quality of the large number of engineering and business administration schools and institutes that have mushroomed but are unable to create professionals who can be readily absorbed in the higher end of jobs.

His answer to the question on whether manufacturing is a way out for creating jobs and pushing growth is that it would definitely help. There are several areas he points out that provide a plethora of opportunities, which can be leveraged. These include electronics and pharma, which he says are the rising stars. He is quite dismissive of the PLI scheme as it involves a subsidy to industry. Instead, getting more electronic chip manufacturers, for instance, into the country as a long-term policy will help to reduce cost of inputs for Indian manufacturers. Hence what is important is a more favourable policy framework to prop up manufacturing output and not be restricted to subsidies, which can work only to an extent.

The book’s various chapters highlight issues that would be integral to the process of becoming rich while becoming developed. An area that is probably of concern all across the globe is disruption caused by pandemics and climate change. This is something that is serious as it can set back the growth process. This can have an impact on agricultural production, which is already visible when it comes to changing season patterns, especially the monsoons.

The other area of worry would be AI. Is it good or bad for a country like ours? Universally it is accepted that we will live with AI in every sphere of our life given the investment that is being made in all countries. The problem for us is that India is a labour-surplus economy and unbridled use of AI and machine learning can have an impact on employment. At a different level, the author points out to the strike in Hollywood when the use of Gen AI became widespread. Are these impact points exaggerated or real? The author pitches in the affirmative and feels that on the whole we will benefit from Gen AI research. But inequality and unemployment can get worse.

Datta in this book points to several areas that need to be addressed by the government as we embark on this long journey. Given that it is still two decades away, there is plenty of time to have a strategy in place. But clearly there is need to start work immediately and cover as much as possible to realise this dream.

Will India Get Rich Before It Turns 100? A Reality Check

Prosenjit Datta

Aleph Book Company

Pp 138, Rs 499

What's driving up gold prices? Business Line 22nd March 2025