What do the budget numbers say? Forbes Feb 2nd 2026

 

https://www.forbesindia.com/article/upfront/column/what-do-the-budget-numbers-say/2990998/1

Union Budget 2026 is centered around debt discipline, new sectors, and domestic capabilities in the context of high borrowings and an uncertain global economy

The budget has been drawn up quite cogently, covering all possible aspects in the fiscal space, giving incentives where required, while following the path of prudence. Two things stand out. The first relates to the data points, which raise six interesting issues that will have implications in the medium term. The second is the foresight shown in terms of focusing on emerging sectors, which makes the Budget contemporary in the context of the emerging reality.

First, when the budgetary numbers are examined closely, several issues arise in the context of fiscal consolidation. True, there is a determination to bring the ratio of debt to GDP to 50 percent by 2030. For this, the fiscal deficit ratio has to be lowered, probably to 3 percent eventually, to reach this target. For FY27, the Budget manages things well, with the fiscal deficit ratio being at 4.3 percent, which, however, is only marginally lower than the 4.4 percent of FY26. It must be pointed out that this number would be subject to change when the new GDP series is released, which can have a different number as the denominator when the FY26 figure is revealed.

The number which stands out is the gross borrowing programme of ₹17.2 lakh crore, which is very high, though the net borrowing programme has been pegged at ₹11.7 lakh crore, which is on par with last year. The clue is in the repayments of ₹5.5 lakh crore. This number will continue to be high and will climb as debt taken in the past starts maturing. This means that the market has to be prepared for this tendency and, hence, even low fiscal deficit ratios will result in higher absolute numbers, which have to be financed through market borrowings and other sources like small savings. Therefore, this will be a new normal, and the market should ideally look at the net number to get a realistic picture.

Another number which stands out is the miscellaneous receipts of ₹80,000 crore. This will include both disinvestment and asset monetisation, though in the recent past the focus has been on the latter. But this will be the way forward for the government, and this has also been subtly mentioned in the budget, that assets of public sector units will be put to better use. This will, for sure, be a significant contributor to budgets in the future too and will be reflective of the prevalent ideology.

The third number which stands out is the non-tax revenue component of dividends from banks, FIs and the RBI. Last year, the number was ₹3.04 lakh crore, and it will be ₹3.16 lakh crore in FY27. The contribution of the RBI to this component was very high last year, at above ₹2.6 lakh crore. This indicates that even in FY27, a similar contribution from the RBI would be expected and, going forward, could also become an important component of the budget.

Fourth, on the expenditure side, the interest payments outgo is significant at ₹14.0 lakh crore, compared with ₹12.74 lakh crore last year. This increase is of nearly 10 percent. The broader issue is that progressively, as deficits are incurred, the interest component will increase. Presently, it constitutes 24 percent of the overall Budget of ₹53.5 lakh crore. This is something that future budgets will have to keep in mind, as it does put constraints on other expenditure, since this cannot be compromised. In fact, this can be linked to the overall borrowing of the government, where higher borrowing will lead to higher interest costs too.

Fifth, the budget has increased the STT on both futures and options. But the budget does not see revenue coming down, which means that overall trading will not really decline but continue to be buoyant. Hence, this can be read more as a measure to curtail retail participation than to impose a cost on the long-term investor.

Sixth, the GST collections this year will be subdued, with the compensation cess being withdrawn. This will again be something that will be part of the future budgeting process. Growth in collections will be more contingent on buoyancy in consumption. This is a result of lower GST rates, which have affected revenue in FY26 too, which came in lower by ₹52,000 crore. The ramifications will also be for states when they draw up their budgets, as the two move together.

The other highlight of the budget is the futuristic view taken when focusing on sectors. Quite appropriately, the Budget has looked at rare earths, data centres and waterways. With the global environment changing, there is a need to become more self-sufficient in certain areas, and this is where the rare earths push fits in. Data centres become important when we talk of GCCs (global capability centres), as there are inherent advantages for India which have to be leveraged. The focus on inland waterways is significant, as this potential has not quite been acted upon in the past and, by doing so, can help not just to utilise this resource but also foster the logistics sector.

Hence, this budget has far-reaching announcements, even though there is not much done on the taxation front. However, as explained here, drawing up future budgets will be interesting, given the fiscal targets that have to be achieved.

Budget ticks most of the boxes : Business Line Feb 2 2026

 While budgets are actually financial statements of the government, there are announcements of several measures which tend to affect different sectors to bring about changes in the pace of activity. In fact every measure that is invoked at the taxation level provides incentive for an economic activity like consumption or expenditure. Also there are several policy changes made which are related to the expenditure outlays of the government. Therefore, in a way there are far reaching implications for all announcements made in the Budget. The impact hence can be examined.

First, growth impetus has been stark, with focus on sectors such as MSMEs, rare-earth, data centres, etc. Given that the MSME sector has been affected the most by the recent ongoing tariff issue with US, the creation of a fund for ₹10,000 crore and the other credit guarantee schemes will help them to a large extent. Also the Budget has made allocations for several freight corridors which will help in forging backward linkages with different sectors besides strengthening the State economies. Interestingly the focus on waterways is important as this is probably the first time that we are talking of leveraging this potential.

Second, investment is given a push by the capex of the government. This has increased to ₹12.2 lakh crore which is significant. The government has been doing the heavy lifting for quite some time now and there is always the hope that private investment will follow suit. It has been seen that the overall investment announcements in the first three quarters has been good giving an indication that the cycle is turning around. The prop being provided by the government will help to bring about a further increase in overall investment in the country. There can be positive impetus provided to industries such as steel, cement, engineering in particular.

Book review: Learnings from the doyen: Financial Express 1st Feb 2026

 When one picks up the biography of any celebrity, be it a business person or one associated with showbiz, there is always some apprehension as they tend to be eulogising. This is a similar feeling one gets when picking up this book on Ratan Tata. But here the author, Harish Bhat, who has been associated with the company and also been marketing the brand, writes that Ratan Tata was not perfect and had his shortcomings. However, this book is about the person who headed the empire and expounds on what he stood for, which was remarkable.

The Tata brand today is the most trusted one in the country and this image has been built over years. Ratan Tata not just cemented this, he made it a household name. The book is titled quite appropriately, ‘Doing the right thing’, as this is what Ratan Tata stood for till his last day. All business decisions taken were based on what he thought was right even when it clashed with the ‘profit motivation’. This is something that is not easy.

So, what does doing the right thing mean? It starts with maintaining the Tata legacy so that the values that are the hallmark of the Group remain forever. Second is to put the nation before everything. Third is the ethical conduct of business. This is probably the most challenging thing to do as very often one may have to indulge in corruption or seek political influence to get things done. This is something which was a big ‘no’ for Ratan Tata.

Fourth is doing what is morally right even in case it is legal. Here he gives examples of business deals the Tatas stayed away from even though it had approval in another country because of potential ecological damage. Fifth is the importance placed on being fair to all stakeholders, which was a key to the decision-making process. Here Tata confided that before any decision was taken he would think of the advantages and disadvantages to various stakeholders which also included employees. Sixth was dealing with compassion with employees, and here he was accessible to all. The author narrates his own experience in this respect.

The seventh aspect of doing the right thing is something which should be taught to probably all CEOs, which is showing respect for people. Here Bhat furnishes several examples to show how Tata dealt with employees. Rarely does one come across a leader who has never raised his voice and shown anger even when utterly dissatisfied with the way business has been conducted. This was supposed to be his strong trait which can be a lesson for all leaders. Very often leaders tend to show their power and run down those who report to them. This is something that should be avoided, and this is what Ratan Tata followed all through his career.

Last is meeting every commitment made. Here all are familiar with the Rs 1-lakh car that he had promised. It was a rather bold statement made at that time which looked almost impossible to deliver. But the company did accomplish this task in the shape of the Nano, which made global headlines because of its remarkable costing.

Bhat takes the reader through various instances where these principles of doing the right thing were displayed by Ratan Tata, whose career was long and spanned various economic eras. Creating a Tata identity and brand was probably the highlight because all the companies were working independently when he took over as head of Tata Sons. While changing the logos and creating a single brand identity was a business decision, percolating the principles that he stood for down the line across these companies and administration was an achievement.

n this book, the author picks up these themes and illustrates with examples how Ratan Tata ensured that he went by this playbook. The author also states upfront that these eight qualities that Ratan Tata stood for were from his own perspective. He admits that every individual may have a different view on what doing the right thing is. But this exposition here is more about what Tata stood for, with the examples given by the author supporting the statements.

A view that one can have here is that if all companies draw up their charters on how to do business and follow them to the tee, the world would be a better place. Ironically all companies have a mission and vision statement and also talk a lot of corporate governance. But then these are very broad contours that never define what are the right things to do. Corporate governance is more of a statutory requirement which annual reports tick mark well. But it is when companies are studied over a longer period of time that their character is revealed.

In fact, even today almost all companies talk of what they have done in the context of corporate social responsibility, which is often just paying obeisance to a statutory requirement. The Tata story, told in detail by the author, was motivated long before mandatory CSR came into being.

Reading this book, one would definitely get a feeling that it would be a privilege to work with the Tata Group and, more importantly, to have interacted with Ratan Tata. And for CEOs this may be a good playbook on how to deal with employees and other stakeholders.

Budget delivers well on prudence and focuses on the future thrust areas: Business Standard 1st Feb 2026

 This year’s budget was eagerly awaited for two reasons considering that not much was expected on the taxation front as the major reforms were implemented last year. The first is the policy or reforms push, given that while the Indian economy has done very well, the external environment continued to be uncertain. In fact, as pointed out by the Economic Survey, this was a paradox in the system with a very good economy coexisting with a rather volatile rupee. The second is the direction of the fiscal deficit which is basically the arithmetic of the budget which would flow from the various reforms or policy measures. 

Starting backwards with the numbers, the budget shows that the dominant ideology driving the content was prudence. This comes out from the fact that the government is targeting a fiscal deficit ratio of 4.3 per cent this year, and hence we seem to be on the path of targeting the debt-to-GDP ratio of 50 per cent in the near-term though would be at 55.6 per cent this year. 

 

The fiscal deficit involves a gross borrowing programme of Rs 17.2 trillion and a net borrowing of Rs 11.7 trillion. It would need to be seen how the market reacts because the gross borrowing programme is higher than last year, though the net claim on the market is the same. This has been necessitated by the higher redemptions falling this year.  As was seen for FY26 the state borrowings also matter when it comes to bond yields.

Further, the growth in nominal GDP has been assumed at 10 per cent, which appears realistic this time as the low base effect of FY26 will translate into a higher number this year. Assuming the economic survey growth of 6.8-7.2 per cent in real GDP as the underlying, inflation will be at 2.9-3.2 per cent in terms of the GDP deflator, which may tend to indicate average CPI inflation of closer to 4 per cent plus. While these numbers will change once the new base gets known, there may not be too much room for further rate cuts in this scenario. Also given the larger borrowing programme, a wait-and-watch approach may be preferred by the monetary policy committee (MPC).

The social welfare programmes have been well targeted as can be seen from the allocations for farmers and employment, which are the two big allocations for the government. Alongside, the government appears steadfast in its commitment to capex with an outlay of Rs 12.2 trillion. While there are signs of private sector capex picking up, so far the government has been the main driver and this is where the allocations across segments matter. 

The financial sector could be seeing some major reforms post the setting up of a committee that will review the system and offer recommendations. The permission to have market makers in the bond market would augur well and one can expect activity to increase. 

On the policy front the focus has been on agriculture, industry, MSMEs and exports, with several interlinkages being leveraged by the budget.  The new areas which have been included in specific allocations are rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres. This would help in making more self-sufficient in the long run for rare earths, while the advantage of supporting data centres will enable India to become an effective player in the area global capability centres.

 

The budget hence delivers well on prudence and focuses more on the future thrust areas thus bringing in not just novelty but pragmatism.  

A comprehensive account & a peek into the future: Financial Express 3-th Jan 2026

 

This is important as Indian bonds are now part of global indices and investor decisions get impacted on this score. The clear signal is to be more mindful of deficits and borrowings.

The voluminous Economic Survey is an omnibus on the state of the economy and cogently covers all aspects and suggests the way forward. So, what are the main messages?

The first is that the Indian economy is on a strong path and the potential growth rate is now 7% in the medium term. This comes notwithstanding the external pressures which have been countered to an extent by the strong growth of 7.4% in FY26.

For FY27 growth has been placed at 6.8-7.2% which will probably be used when drafting the budgetary numbers.

Second is a paradox placed by the CEA in this document. The strong growth witnessed has :collided” with the global system which has been typified by not just tariffs but different monetary policy regimes.

This has put stress on capital inflows thus resulting in volatility in the currency with the rupee going down relative to the dollar. This is again an anomaly as the forex reserves have risen and the import cover is high in the double digits.

Fiscal Debt Targets

Third, on the fiscal side, the Survey buttresses the need to move towards the 50% debt to GDP mark which means that the upcoming budget will definitely target a lower deficit ratio for FY27 relative to FY26 as this is the only way of lowering the debt ratio.

Fourth, on the fiscal health of states, there have been some concerns raised on revenue deficits increasing because of indiscreet expenditure allocations made by various state governments. The broader issue raised is the pressure put on bond yields.

This is important as Indian bonds are now part of global indices and investor decisions get impacted on this score. The clear signal is to be more mindful of deficits and borrowings.

Fifth, with little space to cut outlays on salaries or pensions, the discretionary item of subsidies has been highlighted in the Survey which is what the government should focus on rationalizing. It will be interesting to see if the Budget does prune these numbers for FY27.

Embracing Artificial Intelligence

Sixth, unlike the 2024-25 Survey when there was some caution shown on AI, this time the merits have been spelt out. The inevitability of this phenomenon has brought about the change in stance and the advantages of being a late starter have been highlighted so that various sectors can build their strategies.

Seventh, the Survey has highlighted the critical role played by services in the economy and focuses on reskilling especially in the IT sector. While skill development has been emphasized even in the past in general terms, this is probably the first time that the IT sector has been brought to the forefront.

Eight, the PLI scheme has been acknowledged as a success in manufacturing. But now, the Survey talks of building scale to move away from an ideology of import substitution to becoming part of global value chains.

Ninth, the importance of FDI has been focused on and a recommendation also made on providing incentives as is done in other countries is suggested.

Last, which probably is very relevant, is that the domestic market is the biggest asset for the economy and it is in this context that the reforms should be viewed which have given a thrust to both consumption and investment.

The Survey hence provides a very good balance sheet of the economy where the strengths are highlighted as well as the areas which need to be worked on and hence needs to be commended.

India on a strong plank to show sustained growth in uncertain times: Business Standard 29th January 2026

 The Economic Survey is more of a qualitative appraisal of the Indian economy that delves deeper into what has driven various economic variables during the year. Being announced before the budget, it suggests a path that should be taken to achieve medium-term goals.

 The starting point has been the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2026-27 (FY27), which has been put in a range of 6.8-7.2 per cent. This can be bordering on being conservative as the performance in FY26 has been good at 7.4 per cent notwithstanding external headwinds. But this number is crucial for the formation of the budget, where it can be expected that the nominal growth will be taken as around 10 per cent, which is similar to what was proposed in the FY26 Budget. 

The Survey rightly points at three areas that need to be addressed through the course of the year. The first is consumption that has shown signs of picking up post goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation. This will have to be maintained through the year to ensure that growth keeps ticking. 

 

The second is investment, especially from the private sector. Here, too, there are some signals that this may have picked up this year, though may not yet be broad-based. But this engine has to fire to ensure that the growth momentum is maintained. The Survey is talking of potential growth of 7 per cent for India in the medium-run, which will need both these to increase. 

The third is specific to infrastructure, which is both an opportunity and challenge. The opportunity comes from the scope that exists in all areas starting from roads to social infrastructure. The challenge is twofold – funding these projects as well as project execution. 

 

By achieving these objectives, the economy will be able to withstand the global headwinds which has added a lot of uncertainty to the environment. This had a strong bearing on our external account as evidenced by both a weakening rupee as well as rather volatile foreign investment flows. It has also been pointed out that the foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows have been diverted to an extent to AI-related investment opportunities in the USA, Taiwan and Korea. 

Further, divergent policies by central banks across the world has led to investors changing direction often depending on various regimes. The survey, however, has also highlighted the external strength of the economy as evidenced by high import cover as well as low current account deficit. 

 

The positive factors highlighted by the survey refer to the series of reforms undertaken on the fiscal front as well as on the labour front, which has provided support to the growth process. Also, the fact that the government has signed several free trade agreements (FTAs) is a big positive for the industry in particular, as well as exports as their consummation will help companies to reap the benefits. The European Union (EU) FTA, in particular, is important as it is the largest trading partner for India. 

An interesting suggestion put forward has been on subsidies. The Survey says that subsidies and other discretionary spending has to be rationalised to contain overall revenue expenditure covering salaries, pensions, interest rates. One can expect some measures to be taken in the Budget to be announced on 01 February. 

 

On the whole, the Survey paints a positive picture for the economy as well as outlook, though cautions more on the external environment, which can continue to be slippery and can cause uncertainty. The strong reforms package introduced as well as strength of the domestic economy would mitigate these challenges – is the message that one can take.

View on what to expect from the Budget on Times Now. 25th Jan 2026

 https://www.timesnownews.com/videos/times-now/specials/budget-pe-charcha-ep-6-madan-sabnavis-on-why-sitharaman-should-prioritise-prudence-over-populism-video-153504126