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Sunday, May 10, 2026
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Banking likely to be steady in FY27 Financial Express May 7th 2026
The banking sector fared quite creditably in FY26 notwithstanding tariff threats and war. Bank deposits grew by 13.5% and credit by 16.1%. The question now is, how will business be in FY27?
Several developments in March and April have a bearing on banking this year. The GDP growth number is the primary factor that will guide bank credit growth. While there are links with nominal GDP growth, it can be said with reasonable confidence that a double-digit growth rate looks likely more on account of a higher GDP deflator than a real GDP growth rate. The latter would slow down to 6.9%, according to the RBI. The Budget had spoken of a growth rate of 10% in nominal GDP, which could be exceeded given the higher inflation potential this year on account of both the war as well as possible monsoon effects with El NiƱo developments later in the year. Growth in credit could thus be more in the region of 12-14%, which is still impressive albeit lower than last year.
Growth across sectors is something to watch out for. It appears companies in the larger size bracket would come back to the investment board this year. War may create delays as there is just too much uncertainty. More important is the action that the government may take on petrol prices. Although there may not be any immediate price hike, budgetary concerns will cause a change in view at some point. This can upset the consumption story. Also, there is a possibility of rate hikes this year, which the OIS (overnight index swap) market indicates.These factors will play on the mind of companies which could be looking to invest in capital.
So, it looks like retail credit will be the driver once again, and housing and auto loans will be the focus. Gold loans may be less buoyant given that prices have come down and it is believed that the boom may be behind us. Unless there is a direct impact on job creation and therefore income, retail credit will be on the upward trajectory this year. Curiously, the threat to employment is linked more to AI and its proliferation than the war.
Other sectors like agriculture and micro, small, and medium enterprises would be on a steady path with their nature of mandated credit likely to help maintain momentum. The services segment typified by trade and non-banking financial companies would also continue to see traction. For the former, a growing economy augurs well while for the latter, funds from banks are like a raw material needed for business.
The fate of deposits is interesting. All this while, there has been considerable competition from the capital market. In a declining interest rate scenario, households in particular have tended to look for alternatives, especially in the capital market. Interestingly, while small savings offer higher returns than deposits, the shift has been marginal. It is the capital market that provides a viable alternative with returns of 10-14% depending on circumstances.
Is the capital market well-valued today? This is a call that investors have to take. The major correction seen due to the war has meant there can be a smart upside purely on the grounds of returning to a past equilibrium. That can mean Sensex crossing the 80,000-mark. This will be a consideration for those who weigh the two markets all the time. Bank deposits did gain substantially in March with an increase of Rs 10.39 lakh crore of the Rs 31.15 lakh crore witnessed during the year, which is almost a third of the incremental deposits. While a part of the increase was due to the year-end phenomenon, the war’s impact on stock markets also contributed to this migration. The Sensex fell by 11.5% in March.
It is believed that while a high deposit growth of 13.5% won’t be maintained, it would be in the region of a steady 10-12%. And if the repo rate is increased during the course of the year, it could touch the upper end of this estimate.
Therefore, banking business will be steady and should contribute well to GDP growth. Last year, growth for the component of GDP denoted under “financial, real estate, IT, dwelling” was 9.9%. It should be 9-10% if deposits and credit maintain the growth rates forecast for the year.
Banks will have two primary concerns. The first is the quality of assets. The present situation of stressed supply chains and higher cost of petro-based inputs could persist even if the war ends soon. This will impact profit and loss accounts of companies in sectors such as petrochemicals, fertilisers, paints, glass, ceramics, textiles, and auto. Smaller units are more vulnerable, so they will need close monitoring. The second is that new investment projects or expansion would be cautious in the first half of the year, which means the focus has to be on alternatives.
A related issue concerns the space of treasury income. Typically, higher interest rate regimes mean lower profits but higher margins on credit. This can be a likely scenario especially if the RBI increases rates (based on evolving conditions). At any rate, the regime of declining interest rates appears to have ended, so the possibilities of an upside in treasury income are limited. This is reflected in bond yields which have been intransigent for quite some time.
Monday, May 4, 2026
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
West Asia war impact managed well, but some concerns remain:: Business Standard 29th April 2026
The West Asia war has been on for two months and has caused considerable disruption across the world. The question is when will it end? There is no answer here as what was expected to end in no more than a month’s time has gotten prolonged with even more uncertainty.
Saturday, April 25, 2026
Book review of Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs: Financial Express 25th/26th April 2026
Risk, Resilience, and the Wall Street Pecking Order: Lessons from Lloyd Blankfein
Goldman Sachs is one of the few investment banks that stood out at the time of the financial crisis of 2008. Much of this resilience can be attributed to Lloyd Blankfein, who was heading the bank at that time. Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs is his story. Blankfein takes readers through the important stages of his life with a distinct sense of humour. Like when he was asked by CNBC of being worried about angry mobs storming his house, his reply was that he had a doormat.
His life story is not very different from other people who made it big from rather modest beginnings. Starting from scratch, so to say, he managed a seat in Harvard from where he went on to work with J Aron, which was a commodity trading firm. His transition to Goldman Sachs happened when J Aron was acquired by GS. Blankfein describes the extremely illuminating hierarchy of prestige on Wall Street, which Goldman Sachs also followed.
Investment bankers sit highest in the food chain, followed by traders. Within traders, equity traders are higher placed than those dealing in fixed income. Within fixed income, longer duration bond traders were higher in pecking order than short-term traders dealing with the money market. But all these were more important than currency or commodity traders. Also, there was a prestige gap between traders who took risks and sales people who brought in business. It would be interesting to see if such hierarchies exist in broking houses and banks in the Indian context.
Wall Street Food Chain
Blankfein’s biggest challenge at Goldman Sachs once at the top was handling the financial crisis, which he describes as a ‘double header’. The media and regulators were worried about the existential crisis of all investment banks, as it was the order of the day for them to come tumbling down with the meltdown. This was something that was managed by the firm due to some smart thinking even before the crisis. But, more importantly, he highlights how the reputation issue was tougher. While there was admiration and awe to begin with when the firm went through the period successfully, some were aghast at the ‘how’ of it, which gave way to wild speculation.
The clue, according to him, was the conscious strategy of risk management at the time of the crisis as the company had been evaluating the mortgage values of their portfolio even before the problem came up. This was important because they were able to smell the danger before it set in. By January 2007 they were quite neutral in terms of positions on these exposures. Ironically, the author points out, that even the regulators were not aware how the defaults on subprime mortgages would have spillover effects on the AAA-rated securities. This is a lesson for any financial institution, which should be able to not just smell a crisis but be prepared for it with the risk practices in place.
Blankfein’s contribution was that he was a kind of contrarian in the way in which he operated. While GS was known to be a firm which took bold bets, his approach, given his background, was to be a worrier and not a warrior. By focusing continuously on the tail risks, he insisted on hedging all the way, which was something that helped the firm in tough times. He believed in the line: given enough time, everything will happen! Hence the department tried to account for all contingencies. This led to GS taking insurance from AIG and then further taking CDS insurance against risk of default on the part of AIG.
At a more global level, the author talks of the US economy and capitalist culture which is set around risk, resilience and recovery, helping it rebound fast successfully. This is something that is encouraged by the superstructure which actually helps to bring out the animal spirits in the entrepreneurial class. If systems are open and encourage enterprise, one can come out of a crisis and do very well.
ESG Critique
Steve Jobs did what he did after he was fired from Apple (which he rejoined); and the same holds for Jamie Dimon who had a forced exit from Citi Bank. He attributes resilience more to having better understanding of risk which is often pushed back by human nature and emotion. Interestingly, Blankfein makes a comparison between centralised decision making, as seen in China, and those based on myriads of decisions in a market economy like USA. He believes that the latter is better and makes better decisions.
China’s way of doing business in a centralised manner is not efficient and will show fissures in the longer run. There would be a large number of supporters for this view as the economy today is no longer in the same position as it was, say, a decade back. A market system identifies mistakes and forces change better. Hence the information superhighway propagated by Al Gore would have worked less efficiently in case it was governed by more of a technocratic than democratic regime.
Now, the author takes a rather provocative view towards the end in his ruminations where he openly talks against the language of stake holding as it muddies the water around the respective responsibilities of government, corporations and nonprofit sector. He believes that the fad for ESG investing, which puts the largest asset managers in the position of pushing for various kinds of policies, seems to be misguided.
It is, in his view, asking finance to step in because politics does not produce the desired outcomes. He is all for taxing and regulating oil extraction. But asking Exxon to justify their existence by building windmills is not in order. This is a powerful and bold message, which few corporates are willing to speak about, however much they might feel strongly about it. This view will find a lot of support for sure.
Streetwise is not a book which teaches CEOs how to do business, though there are valuable tips to be taken for sure. He does believe that his approach was more of partnership with colleagues which involved cajoling, socialising and sharing information. Sounds the right way to go given that today’s generation deserves more understanding to get the best out of them.
Streetwise: Getting to and through Goldman Sachs
Lloyd Blankfein
Orion Ignite
Pp 416, Rs 799
Are freebies really a curse? Business Line 25th April 2026
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/are-freebies-really-a-curse/article70902677.ece
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Where will the rupee go from here? Indian Express 22nd April 2026
here is little clarity over the conflict in West Asia. Any news of escalation pushes up the cost of crude oil and puts pressure on the rupee, while signs of a truce work the other way. Therefore, volatility is likely to remain.
