Why the concern over capital flows : Hindu Business Line 28th Feb 2026

 The RBI’s new regulation on ECBs (external commercial borrowings) can be read along with the message given in the Economic Survey on the rupee being under pressure in the year. This is notwithstanding an otherwise remarkable performance of the economy.

The current account deficit is very much in control even though the exporters have faced challenging times. It is the capital account that has been transformed, putting pressure on the currency. The measures announced by the RBI on the amount and tenure of borrowing will surely help companies raise more money in this market and support the capital account.

Historically the capital account was kept steady by FPI and FDI which have become more fragile. While often it is argued that we need to be more open to such investment, polices have been comprehensive; and it does look like that nothing substantive can really be done. FDI can flow into almost all sectors with limits being increased over time. The challenge is to have investors interested in the India story. It is the pull factor rather than push which matters here.

Banking question: Has the credit-deposit ratio lost its relevance? MInt 27th February 2026

 https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/banks-credit-deposit-ratio-rbi-norms-loans-reserves-crr-credit-reserve-ratio-omo-11772045617758.html

Small fry, big success: A useful playbook for knowing the insides of high impact investing: Financial Express 22nd Feb 2026

 Impact investing is something that has caught on in recent times where investors look at relatively less known enterprises in the private market space that work on technology to deliver better solutions to a wider class of people.

The conventional way to look at lucrative investment is to judge the potential of a company to grow and make profits in future. The well-established companies have a track record which attracts investors. But there is another big pie waiting to be explored in the area of impact investing. This is what Mahesh Joshi talks of in his rather interesting book called HIT Investing. The acronym stands for ‘high impact through technology’.

Impact investing is something that has caught on in recent times where investors look at relatively less known enterprises in the private market space that work on technology to deliver better solutions to a wider class of people. In particular, Joshi talks of investments in ventures that affect lives of people in the lower to mid-levels where the impact is significant.

The author talks in detail of eight such ventures which have made a difference to society at large. Hence the names of Quona, Apis Partners, AC Ventures, among others, are discussed in detail, covering their history and motivations. It should be realised that impact investing does get associated with making money and hence is not to be mistaken with donations.

In the process of providing funds to these companies, which can be financial services or energy efficiency or new technologies like decarbonization, a difference is seen in outcomes that benefit society.

Psychology of investing

In brief the book gets into the psychology of such investing which involves asking three basic questions. How are they doing it? What are the techniques used and what is the secret behind their success? The book hence focuses on the challenges faced, strategies used and finally the performance. This is done separately for all the eight investors.

In the process of this discourse, Joshi does some deep-dive analysis into four critical aspects of such investing. This can be a playbook that could be followed by anyone getting into this space. In a way, this can be the four imperatives that have to be looked at for successful investing.

The first one the author talks of is origination. This means finding companies to invest in. The well-known companies are well researched as information is available to everyone in an equitable manner. But once we move from say the public to private space, access is not available to all and the challenge is to get to know this canvas, requiring a lot of research.

Next, is assessing investment potential. This becomes a challenge as there would be limited publicly available data. Getting hold of it and doing the requisite due diligence would be the second sequential step to actually be in a position to decide whether or not to go ahead with investment.

The third step is to also assume the role in helping the investee company grow and achieve their objectives. Hence in a way it could be some kind of tacit management support to provide based on the investor’s experience in this field which can be drawn by stories in other countries.

The last is to carve out an exit route. It should be realised that the main return comes from exiting the venture once it is in a state where growth is sustainable. At times this can take time and could go on for at least 3-6 years.

Before ROI

Besides earning a return on investment, the funds need to be churned to other ventures, which would mean that the investor has to have a well-defined path to move out either through ensuring an IPO or any sale of shares. This is normally done after a critical mass of success is achieved or the main objectives are met in a well-defined time frame.

The author does, in a lighter manner, mention that the talk in this business is to have an exit plan even before investing.
Hence all the case studies analysed here clearly show how these four touchpoints have been achieved.

At the technical level he also outlines a possible template of the way in which portfolios are constructed by these investors, as evidently one should not put all eggs in one basket.

Therefore, diversification can be the key here. Also, he talks of how to assess the impact of these enterprises in terms of meeting their objectives which goes beyond just monetary returns.

The eight investors selected are fairly diverse in terms of their objectives and the stage at which they invest in the life cycle of the companies. Capria and Future Planet look at the early stage of operations, while Quona and AC ventures prefer slightly evolved ventures that have already developed a market and probably also started making a profit.

Apis and Lok Capital invest in enterprises that have already made profits or have a clear path for which capital is needed. SDCL, on the other side, which largely covers Europe and USA, focuses on ventures that drive energy efficiency.

More specific to India, Joshi talks of the success of microfinance and here he gives the example of Lok Capital which focuses largely on this sector. Lok Capital’s Fund 1 generated top quartile returns, while Fund II was in the top two decile for their respective vintages.

He argues that microfinance in our context is probably the best example of creating value in the lives of people and successful impact investing.

The author does stress the point that these impact investors are delivering market rate returns but the difference made to society is sharp. Data shows that there has been an increase in the institutions getting into this field. Also, these investors can be allocating between 5-25% of their funds as impact investment.

Logically, as more funds get allocated in this space, the returns for those who backed them early would also tend to increase. This book is quite unique as it looks at a totally different investment space which can really be inspiring. For those who would like to be associated with such investors, this book is a useful playbook.

India’s FTAs will work better than before: Financial Express 18th February 2026

 FY26 had started on a gloomy note with the US announcing its tariff policy, which was exacerbated by the imposition of additional tariffs in August. At 50%, the  tariff picture looked challenging. Estimates varied on its effect on exporters and the final impact on GDP growth.

Being a domestic-oriented economy, the impact on India’s GDP growth was not expected to go beyond 0.2-0.4%. In fact, by December-end, overall exports to the US saw a 9.7% growth compared with 5.7% for the same period in 2024-25—and much higher than the 2.4% witnessed at the aggregate level. How did this happen?

First, important products like pharma and mobile phone were exempted. Second, there was frontloading of exports in the earlier months. Third, some exports were re-routed through other countries. Fourth, negotiations with import partners on pricing helped maintain some of the contracts.

The free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) and the US deal will now place export prospects on a higher trajectory, as they are our largest export destinations. Two points must be kept in mind. The first is that exporters in industries such as textiles, chemicals, leather products, marine products, and gems and jewellery would be at an advantage as these markets offer more opportunities. India will have an edge over rivals like Bangladesh and Vietnam that have a slightly higher tariff. Secondly, imports too will increase and pose competition to the domestic industry. The details thus become important because FTAs in general offer reciprocal benefits for both sides.

The US deal generates additional interest, considering President Trump has spoken about India buying oil not from Russia but from the US and Venezuela. Indian refiners need clarity because apart from Russian oil costing lower, freight costs would be higher for other alternatives. Further, since imports cannot be reduced to nil in a month but only gradually, the phasing of reduction would be pertinent.

The EU deal also demands close scrutiny as non-tariff barriers can remain a concern although tariffs have been lowered for over 95% of exported goods. For instance, the West is known to enforce rules such as phytosanitary conditions to block farm product imports from emerging markets. Similarly, environmental issues come in with certification requirements. Subjects such as carbon emissions therefore become important. The list gets longer when labour conditions are scrutinised

Thus, signing trade deals is a necessity and help in the long run, but the details matter to all exporters.

The question, then, is whether FTAs really work or not? History provides interesting clues. In the past, any kind of agreements—FTA, Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Agreement—has not moved the needle significantly. For example, Singapore’s share in Indian exports came down from 5.3% in 2006 to 3% in 2024-25; in case of Japan, the share dropped from 2.1% in 2012 to 1.4%; and that of South Korea fell from 2.2% in 2009 to 1.3%.

There were success stories with Malaysia, as the share went up from 1.3% in 2012 to 1.7%, and Mauritius (from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.5%). The post-Covid share of UAE was up from 7% to 8.4% and that of Australia from 1.5% to 2%. Post-Covid deals have been more effective, so prospects with the UK and US augur well.

The geopolitical scenario has changed and the tariff issue has made countries talk to one another more often than before. The World Trade Organization is now an acknowledged failure. But the tariff shock has led countries to sign FTAs among themselves to act as a buffer against the US backlash, which is a good development. In a way, the US president has brought countries closer to one another, which will foster higher levels of trade. More importantly, countries have begun lowering their tariff rates. Although the lower rates are restricted to those signing deals, they have fostered a culture of openness in imports and therefore trade.

On the positive side, the markets in India have reacted very well. The currency also has been a beneficiary as one of the main reasons for the rupee coming under relentless pressure was the absence of a deal with the US. Now that a formal agreement is on the anvil, the rupee has steadied and will be a comfort for the Reserve Bank which has otherwise had to deal with steadying it often.

While there have been fluctuations in the stock market, the general thrust has been positive since the India-US deal was announced. This augurs well for foreign portfolio investors. One of the reasons for their muted activity in the Indian market was the uncertainty surrounding the deal. Now, hopefully it will be business as usual.

FTAs between countries and blocs will be the new normal in the coming years, galvanised by the US action on tariffs. This is welcome from the point of view of fostering a new global economic order where freer trade with fewer restrictions would hold. While the fate of goods appears to be more straightforward, services is one area that has to be focused upon in future.

Trade deal signed herald a new environment for India : Free Press Journal 17th Feb 2026

 

New CPI index is less volatile, suggests prolonged pause on rates: Indian Express 17th Feb 2026

 The new CPI index with the updated basket of goods and services shows inflation at 2.8 per cent in January. While the number was expected to be in this region, the composition of the index merits attention. The weight of food items is now 36.8 per cent as against almost 46 per cent earlier. This sharp fall of almost 10 per cent is significant. But the share is still higher than that in other metrics. For instance, in the private final consumption expenditure data, the share of food and beverages is around 31 per cent in nominal terms and 28 per cent in real terms.

In the National Statistics Office’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24, the share of food is 47 per cent for rural households and 39.7 per cent for urban households. If values are assigned to the free food being provided by the government, the shares go up by 0.9-1.4 per cent. In comparison, in the new index, food and beverages have a weight of 42 per cent in rural and 30 per cent in urban areas.

It is interesting to see how the weightage of the food basket in consumer price indices varies in other countries. In the US, the share of food is around 13-14 per cent. It is at similar levels in Germany. In the UK, it is lower at 11-12 per cent, while in France, it is higher at around 16 per cent. In Italy, it is closer to 18 per cent. Japan probably has the highest share among developed countries at 26 per cent. Among these high-income countries, we find a higher weightage of around 8-15 per cent for education and recreation. As India continues on its development trajectory, it should also witness a similar trend. In these countries, as food has a lower share, monetary policy is more effective as several components of household consumption like housing and automobiles have considerable weight in the price index.

In emerging markets, while the share of food is slightly higher when compared to high-income countries, it is still well below that of India. In China, it ranges between 20 and 25 per cent. It is 20-26 per cent in Brazil and 17-18 per cent in South Africa. This indicates that none of these major economies has food constituting more than 30 per cent of the price index. However, in the case of East Asian economies, the situation is slightly different and closer to India. For instance, Vietnam is close at around 34-35 per cent. But this includes takeaway food as well. Malaysia is next with a share of almost 30 per cent, followed by Indonesia at 25 per cent.

For India, the decline in the share of food in the price index does suggest it will make headline inflation less volatile as food products normally witness wide price swings. This will have implications for monetary policy. Given that core inflation has been higher so far and has greater weight in the index, we can expect a prolonged pause by the Monetary Policy Committee this year.

CRR can be used to provide liquidity Business Line February 12th 2026

 One of the expectations from the credit policy was an announcement of a calendar for open market operations. This was against the backdrop of fluctuating liquidity over the last two months or so. True, there is a surplus right now but this can change again in March when the advance tax payments have to be made. The policy has assured supply of liquidity as and when needed, which also includes situations when the government’s cash balances with the central bank increase. Such a situation may not arise as the government tends to expedite spending towards March to meet targets. The question to be addressed is: what are the options when it comes to supplying liquidity?

The RBI has several instruments that can be used. All of them have different objectives. The system surplus or deficit is denoted by the balances after RBI interventions through repo rate, VRR (Variable Repo Rate), SDF (Standing Deposit Facility), etc. The net outstanding amount reflects the net state of liquidity. These are the daily operations of the RBI under the liquidity framework. But there are also open market operations where government securities are bought and sold. Further, there are forex swaps which deliver similar results. The merits of each can be examined.

The first tool to be used is the overnight repo or VRR which can go up to 14 days. Their tenures provide clues on how the RBI views the liquidity position. These can be viewed as tools for temporary deficits.