India’s FTAs will work better than before: Financial Express 18th February 2026

 FY26 had started on a gloomy note with the US announcing its tariff policy, which was exacerbated by the imposition of additional tariffs in August. At 50%, the  tariff picture looked challenging. Estimates varied on its effect on exporters and the final impact on GDP growth.

Being a domestic-oriented economy, the impact on India’s GDP growth was not expected to go beyond 0.2-0.4%. In fact, by December-end, overall exports to the US saw a 9.7% growth compared with 5.7% for the same period in 2024-25—and much higher than the 2.4% witnessed at the aggregate level. How did this happen?

First, important products like pharma and mobile phone were exempted. Second, there was frontloading of exports in the earlier months. Third, some exports were re-routed through other countries. Fourth, negotiations with import partners on pricing helped maintain some of the contracts.

The free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) and the US deal will now place export prospects on a higher trajectory, as they are our largest export destinations. Two points must be kept in mind. The first is that exporters in industries such as textiles, chemicals, leather products, marine products, and gems and jewellery would be at an advantage as these markets offer more opportunities. India will have an edge over rivals like Bangladesh and Vietnam that have a slightly higher tariff. Secondly, imports too will increase and pose competition to the domestic industry. The details thus become important because FTAs in general offer reciprocal benefits for both sides.

The US deal generates additional interest, considering President Trump has spoken about India buying oil not from Russia but from the US and Venezuela. Indian refiners need clarity because apart from Russian oil costing lower, freight costs would be higher for other alternatives. Further, since imports cannot be reduced to nil in a month but only gradually, the phasing of reduction would be pertinent.

The EU deal also demands close scrutiny as non-tariff barriers can remain a concern although tariffs have been lowered for over 95% of exported goods. For instance, the West is known to enforce rules such as phytosanitary conditions to block farm product imports from emerging markets. Similarly, environmental issues come in with certification requirements. Subjects such as carbon emissions therefore become important. The list gets longer when labour conditions are scrutinised

Thus, signing trade deals is a necessity and help in the long run, but the details matter to all exporters.

The question, then, is whether FTAs really work or not? History provides interesting clues. In the past, any kind of agreements—FTA, Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Agreement—has not moved the needle significantly. For example, Singapore’s share in Indian exports came down from 5.3% in 2006 to 3% in 2024-25; in case of Japan, the share dropped from 2.1% in 2012 to 1.4%; and that of South Korea fell from 2.2% in 2009 to 1.3%.

There were success stories with Malaysia, as the share went up from 1.3% in 2012 to 1.7%, and Mauritius (from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.5%). The post-Covid share of UAE was up from 7% to 8.4% and that of Australia from 1.5% to 2%. Post-Covid deals have been more effective, so prospects with the UK and US augur well.

The geopolitical scenario has changed and the tariff issue has made countries talk to one another more often than before. The World Trade Organization is now an acknowledged failure. But the tariff shock has led countries to sign FTAs among themselves to act as a buffer against the US backlash, which is a good development. In a way, the US president has brought countries closer to one another, which will foster higher levels of trade. More importantly, countries have begun lowering their tariff rates. Although the lower rates are restricted to those signing deals, they have fostered a culture of openness in imports and therefore trade.

On the positive side, the markets in India have reacted very well. The currency also has been a beneficiary as one of the main reasons for the rupee coming under relentless pressure was the absence of a deal with the US. Now that a formal agreement is on the anvil, the rupee has steadied and will be a comfort for the Reserve Bank which has otherwise had to deal with steadying it often.

While there have been fluctuations in the stock market, the general thrust has been positive since the India-US deal was announced. This augurs well for foreign portfolio investors. One of the reasons for their muted activity in the Indian market was the uncertainty surrounding the deal. Now, hopefully it will be business as usual.

FTAs between countries and blocs will be the new normal in the coming years, galvanised by the US action on tariffs. This is welcome from the point of view of fostering a new global economic order where freer trade with fewer restrictions would hold. While the fate of goods appears to be more straightforward, services is one area that has to be focused upon in future.

Trade deal signed herald a new environment for India : Free Press Journal 17th Feb 2026

 

New CPI index is less volatile, suggests prolonged pause on rates: Indian Express 17th Feb 2026

 The new CPI index with the updated basket of goods and services shows inflation at 2.8 per cent in January. While the number was expected to be in this region, the composition of the index merits attention. The weight of food items is now 36.8 per cent as against almost 46 per cent earlier. This sharp fall of almost 10 per cent is significant. But the share is still higher than that in other metrics. For instance, in the private final consumption expenditure data, the share of food and beverages is around 31 per cent in nominal terms and 28 per cent in real terms.

In the National Statistics Office’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24, the share of food is 47 per cent for rural households and 39.7 per cent for urban households. If values are assigned to the free food being provided by the government, the shares go up by 0.9-1.4 per cent. In comparison, in the new index, food and beverages have a weight of 42 per cent in rural and 30 per cent in urban areas.

It is interesting to see how the weightage of the food basket in consumer price indices varies in other countries. In the US, the share of food is around 13-14 per cent. It is at similar levels in Germany. In the UK, it is lower at 11-12 per cent, while in France, it is higher at around 16 per cent. In Italy, it is closer to 18 per cent. Japan probably has the highest share among developed countries at 26 per cent. Among these high-income countries, we find a higher weightage of around 8-15 per cent for education and recreation. As India continues on its development trajectory, it should also witness a similar trend. In these countries, as food has a lower share, monetary policy is more effective as several components of household consumption like housing and automobiles have considerable weight in the price index.

In emerging markets, while the share of food is slightly higher when compared to high-income countries, it is still well below that of India. In China, it ranges between 20 and 25 per cent. It is 20-26 per cent in Brazil and 17-18 per cent in South Africa. This indicates that none of these major economies has food constituting more than 30 per cent of the price index. However, in the case of East Asian economies, the situation is slightly different and closer to India. For instance, Vietnam is close at around 34-35 per cent. But this includes takeaway food as well. Malaysia is next with a share of almost 30 per cent, followed by Indonesia at 25 per cent.

For India, the decline in the share of food in the price index does suggest it will make headline inflation less volatile as food products normally witness wide price swings. This will have implications for monetary policy. Given that core inflation has been higher so far and has greater weight in the index, we can expect a prolonged pause by the Monetary Policy Committee this year.

CRR can be used to provide liquidity Business Line February 12th 2026

 One of the expectations from the credit policy was an announcement of a calendar for open market operations. This was against the backdrop of fluctuating liquidity over the last two months or so. True, there is a surplus right now but this can change again in March when the advance tax payments have to be made. The policy has assured supply of liquidity as and when needed, which also includes situations when the government’s cash balances with the central bank increase. Such a situation may not arise as the government tends to expedite spending towards March to meet targets. The question to be addressed is: what are the options when it comes to supplying liquidity?

The RBI has several instruments that can be used. All of them have different objectives. The system surplus or deficit is denoted by the balances after RBI interventions through repo rate, VRR (Variable Repo Rate), SDF (Standing Deposit Facility), etc. The net outstanding amount reflects the net state of liquidity. These are the daily operations of the RBI under the liquidity framework. But there are also open market operations where government securities are bought and sold. Further, there are forex swaps which deliver similar results. The merits of each can be examined.

The first tool to be used is the overnight repo or VRR which can go up to 14 days. Their tenures provide clues on how the RBI views the liquidity position. These can be viewed as tools for temporary deficits.

will market making give India's corporate bond the fillip it long needed? Mint 11th February 2026

 https://www.livemint.com/market/bonds/budget-proposal-market-making-india-corporate-bond-government-securities-liquidity-11770638495049.html

How should India look at AI: Free Press Journal 4th February 2026

 https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/how-india-should-look-at-ai-opportunity-efficiency-and-the-challenge-of-inequality

One of the primary issues discussed at the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos was AI and its impact. AI is an inevitability, and while one can be slow to adopt the same, it must be accepted over time. This is more so as a start has been made in almost every industry. There are definite gains to be made by adopting AI, but concerns remain for both companies and governments.

What the WEF survey shows
A survey carried out by the WEF among economists revealed some interesting results. Around 54% of those surveyed agreed that AI will lead to displacement of existing jobs, indicating acceptance of this outcome. Around 45% believed that AI will increase profit margins of companies using more AI, which means efficiency gains are to be had. Thirty-seven per cent felt that there would be increased access to goods and services, and 30% voted in favour of the affordability of goods improving. Around 24% were concerned about increasing concentration in industry, while 21% had apprehensions about discrimination against some demographic groups. These results broadly tell us everything about the pros and cons of AI.

Efficiency gains across industries
How does it stack up in India? It is almost unequivocal that there are efficiency gains to be had across various industries. Customer service is one area across all companies which will be enhanced with the greater use of AI, as it involves creating chatbots which can address most issues that are faced by people. Almost all service sector industries have started using such tools to enhance efficiency, and it may soon obviate the need to have call centres to address issues. In fact, all businesses which face the retail customer will have to necessarily adopt AI to enhance customer experience.

Use of AI in key sectors
Let us see how it is used in different sectors. In the BFSI space, it is being used for credit evaluation, as AI can pick up all information of the company which seeks to borrow funds and can assemble the same and make predictions on the servicing of the same. With algorithms running, the right price can also be suggested. The same tools can track the company as part of the credit monitoring process and throw up signals on delinquency based on predefined indicators. Therefore, there is an end-to-end solution being provided. Further, fraud detection also becomes easier with the use of AI and hence can add a lot of value for the industry.

In the case of the IT sector, there are already several changes taking place, with the entire coding process and programming being outsourced to AI. Further, solutions offered by these companies to clients are already using AI to speed up projects with higher levels of efficiency. In retail, the entire customer relation module is being programmed through AI to ensure better delivery of products. In fact, having all data on customers frequenting a store helps to ascertain tastes and preferences, which help in stocking goods. In healthcare, the supply chain management is being provided by AI. Therefore, this is something which is inevitable in any business, and there are clear advantages of using the same.

AI in planning and strategy
AI is used progressively by companies for planning business in the future, and strategies are based on inputs provided through AI tools. It becomes easier to scout the environment, bring in global perspectives and assemble data on various aspects of business, including what the competition is doing when budgeting.

Cost and energy concerns
There is, of course, the cost of using AI, as technology is not cheap and the consumption of power has also increased commensurately. WEF reckons that by 2035, global data centre electricity use could exceed 1,200 terawatt-hours, nearly triple the 2024 levels. There is a need to align AI growth with energy system capacity and sustainability goals. But companies reckon that over time these costs would come down and finally add to the bottom line. Leaving aside these costs, how does this stack up for a country like India?

India’s labour challenge
India is a labour-surplus economy, with a very large pool of youth. The challenge is that the skill sets are still lacking, and while the numbers are large, their employability is limited. This is one reason as to why the largest employers today are logistics and construction, where few skills are required. Therefore, hiring employees with the requisite skills will be a challenge.

Job losses and reskilling
Further, there is concern about job losses. Companies using AI progressively will need to address the issue of handling existing staff, which needs to be reskilled, if possible, or let go. This is a major challenge given that the age barrier often comes in the way of reskilling. Therefore, job losses are bound to mount with progressive use of AI. While it is true that new jobs will be created as AI becomes a part of the curriculum of various courses at the university level, the existing staff would face the threat nonetheless.

Inequality and MSMEs
The second major issue which also comes out in the survey is that of inequality. While large firms will be able to invest and leverage the use of AI, the same will not be possible for the MSMEs, given their limited financial strength. This will further exacerbate the wedge between the two, and there is the possibility of being out-competed in the industry.

On the issue of inequality, it is accepted that those with requisite skills will find takers quite easily, which will also go with much higher remuneration than the conventional roles. It is already seen that the IT sector offers the highest remuneration to engineers compared with any other industry. The same will happen when it comes to the use of AI, as all industries will require these skill sets to design their framework for their operations, which can stretch from manufacturing to customer service.

What do the budget numbers say? Forbes Feb 2nd 2026

 

https://www.forbesindia.com/article/upfront/column/what-do-the-budget-numbers-say/2990998/1

Union Budget 2026 is centered around debt discipline, new sectors, and domestic capabilities in the context of high borrowings and an uncertain global economy

The budget has been drawn up quite cogently, covering all possible aspects in the fiscal space, giving incentives where required, while following the path of prudence. Two things stand out. The first relates to the data points, which raise six interesting issues that will have implications in the medium term. The second is the foresight shown in terms of focusing on emerging sectors, which makes the Budget contemporary in the context of the emerging reality.

First, when the budgetary numbers are examined closely, several issues arise in the context of fiscal consolidation. True, there is a determination to bring the ratio of debt to GDP to 50 percent by 2030. For this, the fiscal deficit ratio has to be lowered, probably to 3 percent eventually, to reach this target. For FY27, the Budget manages things well, with the fiscal deficit ratio being at 4.3 percent, which, however, is only marginally lower than the 4.4 percent of FY26. It must be pointed out that this number would be subject to change when the new GDP series is released, which can have a different number as the denominator when the FY26 figure is revealed.

The number which stands out is the gross borrowing programme of ₹17.2 lakh crore, which is very high, though the net borrowing programme has been pegged at ₹11.7 lakh crore, which is on par with last year. The clue is in the repayments of ₹5.5 lakh crore. This number will continue to be high and will climb as debt taken in the past starts maturing. This means that the market has to be prepared for this tendency and, hence, even low fiscal deficit ratios will result in higher absolute numbers, which have to be financed through market borrowings and other sources like small savings. Therefore, this will be a new normal, and the market should ideally look at the net number to get a realistic picture.

Another number which stands out is the miscellaneous receipts of ₹80,000 crore. This will include both disinvestment and asset monetisation, though in the recent past the focus has been on the latter. But this will be the way forward for the government, and this has also been subtly mentioned in the budget, that assets of public sector units will be put to better use. This will, for sure, be a significant contributor to budgets in the future too and will be reflective of the prevalent ideology.

The third number which stands out is the non-tax revenue component of dividends from banks, FIs and the RBI. Last year, the number was ₹3.04 lakh crore, and it will be ₹3.16 lakh crore in FY27. The contribution of the RBI to this component was very high last year, at above ₹2.6 lakh crore. This indicates that even in FY27, a similar contribution from the RBI would be expected and, going forward, could also become an important component of the budget.

Fourth, on the expenditure side, the interest payments outgo is significant at ₹14.0 lakh crore, compared with ₹12.74 lakh crore last year. This increase is of nearly 10 percent. The broader issue is that progressively, as deficits are incurred, the interest component will increase. Presently, it constitutes 24 percent of the overall Budget of ₹53.5 lakh crore. This is something that future budgets will have to keep in mind, as it does put constraints on other expenditure, since this cannot be compromised. In fact, this can be linked to the overall borrowing of the government, where higher borrowing will lead to higher interest costs too.

Fifth, the budget has increased the STT on both futures and options. But the budget does not see revenue coming down, which means that overall trading will not really decline but continue to be buoyant. Hence, this can be read more as a measure to curtail retail participation than to impose a cost on the long-term investor.

Sixth, the GST collections this year will be subdued, with the compensation cess being withdrawn. This will again be something that will be part of the future budgeting process. Growth in collections will be more contingent on buoyancy in consumption. This is a result of lower GST rates, which have affected revenue in FY26 too, which came in lower by ₹52,000 crore. The ramifications will also be for states when they draw up their budgets, as the two move together.

The other highlight of the budget is the futuristic view taken when focusing on sectors. Quite appropriately, the Budget has looked at rare earths, data centres and waterways. With the global environment changing, there is a need to become more self-sufficient in certain areas, and this is where the rare earths push fits in. Data centres become important when we talk of GCCs (global capability centres), as there are inherent advantages for India which have to be leveraged. The focus on inland waterways is significant, as this potential has not quite been acted upon in the past and, by doing so, can help not just to utilise this resource but also foster the logistics sector.

Hence, this budget has far-reaching announcements, even though there is not much done on the taxation front. However, as explained here, drawing up future budgets will be interesting, given the fiscal targets that have to be achieved.