The banking sector fared quite creditably in FY26 notwithstanding tariff threats and war. Bank deposits grew by 13.5% and credit by 16.1%. The question now is, how will business be in FY27?
Several developments in March and April have a bearing on banking this year. The GDP growth number is the primary factor that will guide bank credit growth. While there are links with nominal GDP growth, it can be said with reasonable confidence that a double-digit growth rate looks likely more on account of a higher GDP deflator than a real GDP growth rate. The latter would slow down to 6.9%, according to the RBI. The Budget had spoken of a growth rate of 10% in nominal GDP, which could be exceeded given the higher inflation potential this year on account of both the war as well as possible monsoon effects with El NiƱo developments later in the year. Growth in credit could thus be more in the region of 12-14%, which is still impressive albeit lower than last year.
Growth across sectors is something to watch out for. It appears companies in the larger size bracket would come back to the investment board this year. War may create delays as there is just too much uncertainty. More important is the action that the government may take on petrol prices. Although there may not be any immediate price hike, budgetary concerns will cause a change in view at some point. This can upset the consumption story. Also, there is a possibility of rate hikes this year, which the OIS (overnight index swap) market indicates.These factors will play on the mind of companies which could be looking to invest in capital.
So, it looks like retail credit will be the driver once again, and housing and auto loans will be the focus. Gold loans may be less buoyant given that prices have come down and it is believed that the boom may be behind us. Unless there is a direct impact on job creation and therefore income, retail credit will be on the upward trajectory this year. Curiously, the threat to employment is linked more to AI and its proliferation than the war.
Other sectors like agriculture and micro, small, and medium enterprises would be on a steady path with their nature of mandated credit likely to help maintain momentum. The services segment typified by trade and non-banking financial companies would also continue to see traction. For the former, a growing economy augurs well while for the latter, funds from banks are like a raw material needed for business.
The fate of deposits is interesting. All this while, there has been considerable competition from the capital market. In a declining interest rate scenario, households in particular have tended to look for alternatives, especially in the capital market. Interestingly, while small savings offer higher returns than deposits, the shift has been marginal. It is the capital market that provides a viable alternative with returns of 10-14% depending on circumstances.
Is the capital market well-valued today? This is a call that investors have to take. The major correction seen due to the war has meant there can be a smart upside purely on the grounds of returning to a past equilibrium. That can mean Sensex crossing the 80,000-mark. This will be a consideration for those who weigh the two markets all the time. Bank deposits did gain substantially in March with an increase of Rs 10.39 lakh crore of the Rs 31.15 lakh crore witnessed during the year, which is almost a third of the incremental deposits. While a part of the increase was due to the year-end phenomenon, the war’s impact on stock markets also contributed to this migration. The Sensex fell by 11.5% in March.
It is believed that while a high deposit growth of 13.5% won’t be maintained, it would be in the region of a steady 10-12%. And if the repo rate is increased during the course of the year, it could touch the upper end of this estimate.
Therefore, banking business will be steady and should contribute well to GDP growth. Last year, growth for the component of GDP denoted under “financial, real estate, IT, dwelling” was 9.9%. It should be 9-10% if deposits and credit maintain the growth rates forecast for the year.
Banks will have two primary concerns. The first is the quality of assets. The present situation of stressed supply chains and higher cost of petro-based inputs could persist even if the war ends soon. This will impact profit and loss accounts of companies in sectors such as petrochemicals, fertilisers, paints, glass, ceramics, textiles, and auto. Smaller units are more vulnerable, so they will need close monitoring. The second is that new investment projects or expansion would be cautious in the first half of the year, which means the focus has to be on alternatives.
A related issue concerns the space of treasury income. Typically, higher interest rate regimes mean lower profits but higher margins on credit. This can be a likely scenario especially if the RBI increases rates (based on evolving conditions). At any rate, the regime of declining interest rates appears to have ended, so the possibilities of an upside in treasury income are limited. This is reflected in bond yields which have been intransigent for quite some time.
