https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/to-generate-jobs-india-should-consider-a-jobs-linked-incentive-scheme-eli-pli-employment-linked-scheme-manufacturing-11732686280903.html
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Revival on the cards for Indian economy: Indian Express 27th November 2024
With the two main engines of consumption and investment looking positive, there is reason to believe that overall growth will remain above 7 per cent this year
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Book Review: Living the job: Financial Express 24th November 2024
As the book deals largely with SoftBank, the epithet of ‘grand fortunes and lost illusions inside the tech bubble’ is relevant, as most investments made were in these companies.
At times one would wonder whether this book is more about Masa or Sama, which is inescapable, as the two are closely interwoven in most of the pages. There is, of course, a lot about the author too, with some references to his college life, especially St Stephen’s College, Delhi, where he earned a gold medal. This was followed by a management degree from Wharton in the Eighties when it was generally only the privileged who managed to make it. His first job was with Morgan Stanley.
The book in places reads like fiction as the author swings through different incidents and deal-makings. This also hampers the flow and affects continuity. At times it seems as though random thoughts and incidents have been clubbed together in a chapter. Some bit of editing could have helped here
As the book deals largely with SoftBank, the epithet of ‘grand fortunes and lost illusions inside the tech bubble’ is relevant, as most investments made were in these companies. The journey that the author takes us through are the micro tales of several of these deals where some heads of states are also involved. SoftBank was associated with some big names like Yahoo, TikTok, Uber, T-Mobile, DoorDash, Alibaba and WeWork. It was the sponsor of some of the largest technology investment funds in history. These parts make interesting reading for sure.
The life of an investment banker is tough, as was the case with Sama, though in retrospect hi story is narrated with humorous panache. He does provide some perspective of an industry that affects all our lives in some way or the other. His narrative includes negotiations on Gulfstream jets and even terraces of castles in Germany. One gets to see Son’s private sanctuary with its exquisite Japanese garden. A touch of Wodehouse comes in as Sama refers to Japanese versions of Jeeves in Son’s empire.
There are analogies drawn to books and art besides music which is a very good alloy when presenting what could have been an ordinary story. Hence there are some mentions of his dog and the golf course, where he accidentally meets up with Elle McPherson. These parts are more his story than business dealings at the highest level.
Sama is evidently an aficionado of rock music as can be gathered from the titles of the chapters. The prologue, which could read like a crime mystery, has a layer of intrigue, and is aptly called ‘brain damage’, reminiscent of legendary rock group Pink Floyd. Floyd’s songs figure on the pages in one of his family interactions where he talks of being ’uncomfortably numb’. The chapter of ‘Born to run’ makes one remember Boss, Bruce Springsteen, and so on. Here he likens the lives of investment bankers to ‘martlets’ or birds without feet that are condemned to a life of continuous flight.
Contrary to expectations, this book is not quite a guide on investing, especially when it comes to making deals. Therefore, one should not read it to derive inspiration or pick up insights on how to be a successful banker. Neither is it an expose on the deals that are made in this world. There is not much detail about such outcomes and hence there may be no lessons to be learnt. Therefore, the reader should not pick it up to get advice on how to go about the job.
It is more about an individual’s tryst through this world which has a lot of intrigue. Would this be the way all the deal makers and investment bankers lead their careers? One would not know for sure; but if his story is typical of any deal maker, it may not be for the faint hearted. Money and power dominate all through and the culture of the rarefied group of people who wield it stands out. Things are not straight forward and making large investments where stakes are high is not akin to buying shares of a company. One has to deal with several forces that could be political which have to be kept in mind. Moreover, it does take away a lot of one’s personal life (he talks of the smear campaign against him) and there cannot be the peace of mind that one could get in a conventional corporate job.
Saturday, November 23, 2024
Health Insurance Reforms Need To Start With Hospital Reforms: Free Press Journal 23rd November 2024
There is clearly need for the government to get into this rather murky business of pricing by hospitals as this has come in the way of coverage and cost of health insurance
When one looks at the room rates in a hotel, there are different prices depending on the kind of accommodation. The starting price point would be, say, Rs 8000 a day which can go up to Rs 30,000 or more depending on the size of the accommodation and the amenities and comforts that go with the same. However, all the extra charges for laundry or room services remains the same across all the customers. This is logical as the customer is already charged a certain rate for the accommodation chosen.
However, when one moves from the hospitality to hospital sector, the charges change dramatically to the point of being absurd. Let us look at the rate list of one of Mumbai’s leading hospitals in the suburbs which is rated as a five-star facility. The rooms have different grades which includes common, economy, twin, special, deluxe, super deluxe and suite. The room charges as of 2023 varied between Rs 2,250 and Rs 35,000 per day with the special room having a tag of Rs 6,750. The last will be used as the mid-point reference for the purpose of illustration as this is normally the accommodation approved by health insurance policies when there are no sub-limit clauses in the policy.
Now the surgeries that are conducted come as packages much like the hospitality sector provides exciting ones for a certain period of stay. The surgeries are listed under different grades which the surgeon decides. Again, for illustration one can look at Grade 5 which is what most of them would put the patient through in the name of being the least invasive procedure. There are never details provided by the hospital on which procedures are included under these grades, and the prerogative is with the specialist.
Now let us look at how this Grade 5 rates look. The packages vary from Rs 2.1 lakh to Rs 5.7 lakh to Rs 9 lakh. These are indicated as deposits and would normally cover the entire stay with a refund of may be up to 5% as is normally the case. The surgeon fees which the hospital calls ‘recommended’ varies from Rs 30,900 to Rs 1.88 lakh to Rs 2.88 lakh and the same for anaesthetist, operation theatre charges etc vary accordingly. The absurd part is that the same operation theatre with the same staff and medicines sees exponential increase as the accommodation becomes pricier.
Should the government be looking at these rates given that there is monitoring of fares charged by airlines as well as on charges for telecom service providers? Interestingly these charges hold only when the patient pays on own account. If there is a known insurance cover which involves a cashless facility, the charges go up even further, which is not disclosed by anyone.
The problem with such pricing is that it distorts the entire business of health insurance. Health insurance is one area where there is maximum asymmetric information just as in the case of a second-hand car. The individual knows what the body condition is like while the insurer can never get to know the actual state despite all tests that are normally made mandatory. This is why insurance premium is very high which is topped by the government imposing a GST of 18%. Finally, the market is completed distorted due to the practices pursued by hospitals. There are never any objections raised by patients because all of them feel that they escaped death or trauma due to the doctor who is considered to be a panacea for all ailments.
People take cover for a certain amount and take into account the fine print of the sub-limits that are covered. While some policies fix it as a percent of the amount insured, others permit a single air-conditioned accommodation. Experience in all hospitals show that when a distressed patient enters the precincts of facility, the ‘admission’ counter invariably offers vacancy in the lowest category and those above the mid-point after gauging the status of the individual. Often marketing targets are given to these personnel and their bonuses are based on ensuring highest capacity utilisation or occupancy in the higher grades of rooms as this is where profit is made across the board by all stakeholders.
Normally the patient’s kin accept it as there is distress where there is no choice. Or there can be the comfort of insurance cover especially if it is cash-less where the hospital can further charge a premium. For the affluent the cost anyway does not matter. The result is that insurance companies often end up making losses on almost 50% of claims. The business survives and remains profitable only because there is a large section of youngsters who take insurance and normally would never use the same. As age advances, so do the claims, which in turn affects the frequency of claims. It is because of these asymmetric payoffs that there are very few reputed private hospitals that have enrolled with the government for the Ayushman scheme.
There is clearly need for the government to get into this rather murky business of pricing by hospitals as this has come in the way of coverage and cost of health insurance. There is little transparency in this business which has affected its affordability. As conditions in state run hospitals are abysmal even the lower middle class opt for these private facilities which can hurt their finances substantially.
To begin with there has to be a transparent price list put up by all hospitals which go with all the charges for a procedure. Second, the price escalation based on cost of the room accommodation should be fixed based on rationality. In the example provide above, the rate list for the deposits given are just not acceptable. Third, setting targets for hospital staff as well as doctors in several hospitals should be a cognisable offence. How often do you have doctors directing patients to a specific higher end hospital even though they perform operations in more reasonable hospitals too? Fourth, there has to be an online availability chart in all private hospitals linked to patients currently in the facility to ensure that patients are not forced to take higher end rooms. This has to be linked with an audit trail. Fifth, revelation of the accounts of the hospital should be made mandatory so that there can be audit of flow of funds.
The problem really is for the middle class. If one is financially challenged there are in existence some norms for reserving rooms for this class. The rich do not really get affected as money does not matter. It is the middle class which actually ends up paying the most for both insurance as well as treatment and hence at the receiving end. This needs to change.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Disturbing signals from inflation numbers: Financial Express 19th November 2024
The latest inflation numbers indicate that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will definitely not consider a rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy in December. The inflation number at 6.2% was not expected, and the relentless high food inflation numbers in the last few months are indicative of something which requires deeper analysis. The core inflation component has also been inching up, though still lower than the 4% mark. What is one to make of these three issues?
In the last policy in October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had changed the stance to neutral while it kept the repo rate unchanged. Should it reconsider the stance given the inflation proclivities? This is an interesting issue that comes up because a change in stance was meant to indicate a possible cut in the repo rate in the future. It does seem that these price pressures will remain for another month and be above 5% in November. This being the case, it can be argued that it may have been premature to change the stance in October. Add to this Donald Trump coming to power, and the case for imported inflation seeping in increases.
Based on Trump’s beliefs expressed during campaigns, tariffs are likely on all imports which will be inflationary. Tax cuts will push up deficits, which will again mean higher borrowing and inflation. The Fed may have to reconsider its downward glide path. With imports under pressure, China will also push for stimulus that will not just elevate commodity prices directly but also force other countries, including India, to reconsider tariffs on such imports. While this scenario can be extreme, one has to wait and watch as this has potential to increase imported inflation.
Therefore, with future inflation likely to have an upside bias, it is not surprising that there is an opinion of exploring the change in stance back to withdrawal of accommodation. This also means that a rate cut in December is out for certain, and, by extension, could also not be a certainty in February 2025. This is notwithstanding the fact that the inflation numbers could be more acceptable then because the RBI has to consider the course of the rabi crop as well as the impact of US policies. Therefore, it is quite possible that the rate cut eagerly awaited by businesses will be seen in FY26 rather than Q4FY25.
Food inflation is a conundrum. In successive years, India has been able to record new peaks in production of various crops. Yet, there are sharp food price shocks. It betrays some interesting points. High wheat production, for instance, does not ensure that prices come down because of the minimum support price, which is increased every season. This means that the threshold prices increase in the market, even when the crop is good, as there is a buyer in the form of the Food Corporation of India which fixes the benchmark. Any production shock only exacerbates the price increase.
Second, outside crops, the issue of vegetable inflation is now a regular feature. The tomato and onion shocks are routine post-monsoon. With changing weather patterns, there is a case of delayed withdrawal of monsoon, which, in turn, affects the harvests. As there is a gap of two-three months before the next crop arrives, inflation is the result. There is also the cobweb phenomenon where farmers sow more of a vegetable when prices rise, only to experience high output and a sharp fall in prices subsequently. Policymakers need to look at the issue anew and think of commercialising such cultivation and linking the same to the food processing industry.
The last factor is vegetable oil prices, which feed into inflation of other associated products such as processed foods as well as services that deal with food products, making it difficult to untangle. With higher demand from China as well as the developed countries (which goes with higher growth), prices have moved up. The strong dollar has added to imported cost, thus pushing up oil inflation. With India importing over 60% of its edible oils, it is but natural that the impact is sharp on food inflation.
Advocates of a rate cut have always pointed to core inflation which has been low, and is what can be influenced by policy. However, this inflation number has been crawling up and is now 3.7%. This is so because manufacturers in particular have been slow to pass on higher input costs due to generalised inflation, which has kept demand compressed. There is evidence to show that companies have been raising their prices of late to maintain profit margins. This has caused core inflation products to witness higher inflation. Therefore, this number will tend to move upwards.
Putting all these developments together, it does appear that the MPC will have to deliberate harder this time on the future course of inflation. The high statistical base effects have not quite played out positively on food inflation. A big relief comfort is that growth appears to be on a stable path of upwards of 7% this year and hence, there would be no haste to lower rates. Besides, the repo rate has averaged 6-6.5% in the last 12 years or so, and therefore there is room to pause further and take a deep breath.
Friday, November 15, 2024
How Trump can affect the world economic order : Business Line 15th November 2024
The President-elect’s ‘America First’ policy and tariff hike threats against China could affect global trade and inflation
The ‘Make America Great Again’ or ‘America First’ campaign is likely to be at the forefront of all policies. First, the issue of immigration has been high on the agenda of the Republican Party which has overtly stated that jobs need to be created more for the local population.
While the target appears to be the southern border, strict laws for the world are a likely corollary. This can make it challenging for US companies to hire relatively cheaper workers from outside. And, this could have an impact on India’s IT sector, for which US is a major destination. There can be some concerns here for India’s services exports, which have grown at remarkable rate in the last few years. The fine-print of the policy which sifts skilled and unskilled workers would be important. Stringent policies on hiring of immigrant labour can lead to a labour crunch internally, leading to higher wage-pull inflation.
Second, there has been a frontal attack on China for using unfair means to dump goods in the US. This would mean high tariffs on goods from China. The extent of increase would vary across goods to ensure that it would make sense for domestic buyers to choose locally produced goods. What is being spoken of is 10-20 per cent additional tariff on all imports, 60-100 per cent for those from China, and even higher for auto imports from Mexico. Given that the US is the largest export destination for non-oil products from India, we must pay attention to any action taken on imports in general. While the US reducing dependence on China for goods can be an opportunity for India, Trump’s rhetoric with respect to other countries would also be critical.
Third, the threat of higher tariffs on China has already spurred the country to roll out stimulus measures, which can have implications for global trade. China would look to other markets, and hence India has to be prepared with counter-measures to ensure that cheap goods are not dumped.
The overall growth pattern of China will be important because global commodity prices will be driven by this. As China seeks to grow faster, commodity prices would ratchet upwards. China’s stimulus measures are already leading to a reversal in the trend of low commodity prices.
Fourth, higher tariffs in the US would mean higher inflation. Higher inflation would also come in the way of how the US Fed sees the economic trade-off between growth and inflation. Trying to support growth through tariffs would end up pushing up inflation which, in turn, will come in the way of lowering interest rates. This is a conundrum the Fed faces, especially as the dot plot already indicates that there would be another 100 basis point cut in rates in 2025, which will be the first year of the new President.
Fifth, Trump has always been for lower corporate taxes and is considered to be pro-industry, and this is why there has been overwhelming support for him from the corporate sector. But lower taxes and maintenance of healthcare will mean larger deficits and borrowing costs. And this is already being reflected in terms of bond yields moving up. There will be additional pressure on the Fed when it comes to tackling inflation.
Imported inflation
The RBI has often reiterated that the decision on repo rate is based on domestic inflation considerations. But actions taken in the US have the potential to affect global inflation too, which will feed into the system through imported inflation and hence cannot be ignored, especially when core inflation is already inching upwards.
Sixth, the status of the dollar will be uncertain. Higher inflation will mean higher interest rates for longer periods, which will keep the dollar stronger. And this is already visible since the election results were out.
However, there are also arguments for a weaker dollar, to ensure there is an export advantage for the US. Either of these two situations would mean work for central banks across the world. A stronger dollar will mean that central banks have to defend their currencies. A weaker dollar would mean ensuring that countries do not lose their competitive advantage.
From the point of view of markets, Trump regime could mean more volatility. As far as FPI flows are concerned, they would tend to be less predictable. A stimulus earlier by China saw major withdrawals from emerging markets. Actions as well as intentions announced by the US would tend to drive sentiment, which in turn has the potential to have an influence on global currencies.
The world would have to be prepared for a new normal with Donald Trump taking over. His stance at the time of campaign was no different from the action taken when he was President earlier. Therefore, consistency can be expected, though the extent could get tempered given the new world economic order. But for sure, all governments and central banks have to remain vigilant when the world’s largest economy targets the second largest.
Saturday, November 9, 2024
How To Gauge Consumer Spending This Time? Free Press Journal 9th November 2024
While there is still need to exercise caution in forming judgements on overall consumption including urban spending, the commentary on Q3 sales will throw light on the final picture
With some of the leading FMCG companies raising a red flag on demand conditions in the second half of the year, there is some concern on the growth path of the economy for FY25. This is understandable as any projection of high growth was premised on a sharp recovery in consumption. As the IMD has indicated that monsoon is above normal and well spread, it was logically assumed that the cog in the wheel, i.e. rural consumption would turn positive. This is the basis for being more sanguine about Q3 of the year as the period coincides with the post-harvest cum festival season.
The issue which has been flagged is urban consumption which does not appear to be in the take-off mould. In the last couple of years the picture was fogged to an extent by the pent-up demand phenomenon where there was an upsurge in spending. While the lower end products did not quite see the same traction it did not matter as the sales of higher priced goods were up. This was the phenomenon of premium products selling well in the market. The higher income groups have been impervious to any external effects; and post covid have been on an upward spending spree. This has manifested in buying more high-end goods. In fact, the number of BMWs, Audis and Mercedes cars on the roads has increased and reflect the wealth of this class. But lower down the pecking order, things have been different.
Quite clearly when segmenting society in terms of targeting goods and services, it is no longer a dualistic approach of rural and urban. There is also an income group which comes into the picture where there are three distinct classes. The affluent would be at the top while the middle order encompassing a large mass, which includes those employed in relatively low-income jobs get covered. At the bottom are the poor who are just on subsistence and would be surviving mainly due to the largesse of the central and state governments. Even with the rural folks, it is not just agriculture which matters as the allied activity comprises almost half of the workers as well as output and hence a classification here is relevant. And then there is the non-farm class which is primarily the MSMEs in petty manufacturing and service activity. Therefore, a more nuanced look is needed to understand why things are the way they have shaped up.
There are several factors at work which drive consumption. The first is the case of repressed consumption in the past in the last couple of years which can lead to higher spending especially at the lower- and middle-income levels. The current picture is that there has been less compromise made on expenditure on services like better living which includes travel, tourism and dining. But the same on goods has been limited. Second is inflation which has cumulatively taken a toll on real income. While incomes have been rising the real value is denuded due to inflation. This leads to less spending on discretionary goods. As food inflation has been high with the products being necessities, there has been a cutback on other goods.
Third, while employment numbers do indicate that more people are getting jobs, there has been concentration in those involving lower skills. Here typically incomes are low and can be seen in sectors such as construction sites or logistics where delivery has seen an upsurge in job creation. The spending power is limited after accounting for rentals in cities and the phenomenon of sending money back to families in the hinterland. Fourth, there has also been a case of jobs being lost in the organised sector and this is manifested in the layoffs announced publicly by several companies. This is due to downturn in business as well as shift to greater use of technology. Either way this means the threat of loss of jobs is always there. Aligned to this phenomenon is the salary increases which have been modest since covid where companies have not been giving hikes of double-digit numbers as their performance has tended to be under the weather for a longer period of time. The top echelons reap the benefits of stock options and have made substantial gains due to the stock market boom.
Last the access to finance has become a little tougher ever since the RBI came up with stricter norms for unsecured loans which has pushed up the cost. Therefore, leverage based consumption has ebbed which is again a factor working at the margin.
Now there is less clarity on how these factors will work out in the next couple of months. While data for October is not yet available there is a view that the spending from the urban side could be low key this year. One reason for the picture to be blurred is that September was a month that did not see much traction in sales for automobiles as well as consumer goods due to the custom of not purchasing such products during this phase which is considered inauspicious by some sections of society. This year all the festivals have come earlier which has come in the way of sales. Hence there is some hope that there would be a revival in sales which again could be more from inventories built-up rather than fresh production.
Hence the picture is quite blurred today though the major comfort which comes from a critical proxy variable i.e. GST collections is reassuring. The fact that collections in the first 7 months of the year are higher than that of last year is reason to believe that conditions are stable. The fact that a large part of consumption has shifted to the online mode means that what is observed at the brick-and-mortar outlet and shopping malls do not give a reliable wholesome indication of the picture. The higher discounts offered by the major portals has already weaned consumption away from the physical outlets.
Therefore, while there is still need to exercise caution in forming judgements on overall consumption including urban spending, the commentary on Q3 sales will throw light on the final picture. All underlying conditions of good monsoon, better kharif crop and declining inflation (which is rate of change of prices and not absolute change in prices) seem to be in place. However, higher absolute prices for food products and low pace of growth in employment in the organised sector are still areas where the picture is not too clear.
Sunday, November 3, 2024
Playing Gate-keeper: There are two sides to every billionaire’s story, and viewing only one can be misleading: Financial Express November 3, 2024
Before reading this book, a question we need to ask is whether or not the judgment of a corporate leader should stop at professional achievements. Does personal life matter or the associations that a person may have? If the person has achieved distinction by probably lobbying to get certain laws passed, is there anything amiss here? And last, if the person at some stage of career decides to give a large part of wealth for general welfare, even though there could be some business round-tripping, should it taint the image?
To digest the book written by Anupreeta Das, titled Billionaire, Nerd, Saviour, King, one needs to answer these questions. While there are several tech entrepreneurs who would qualify under this heading, this book is all about Bill Gates. The author has a sub-title which goes as ‘the hidden truth about Bill Gates and his power to shape our world’. This indicates that the author is going to be very critical of Bill Gates, and this is actually the train of thought that pervades the 320-odd pages. In the book, Gates comes across as a person who is a slave-driver employer and very demanding, even getting abusive if things do not go his way. Hence employees have to give their best, keeping aside things like a work-life balance. The book says Gates’ philanthropic work in terms of money given has been questioned based on motivations and the fact that the foundation funds may be finite can raise some questions on intent.
The first page of the introduction in the book talks of his association with Jeffrey Epstein, who was a convicted sex offender and a pariah who died in jail. The reader would evidently start reading the book with a bias that could turn to prejudice along the way when viewing Bill Gates. His achievements at Microsoft could get dimmed in this process.
Gates was a drop-out from Harvard in 1975 who co-founded Microsoft as a teenager. His early life is described as one of relentless coding through the night after promising a company ‘software that he hadn’t yet written’. The company went public 11 years later, and a year after that Gates became a billionaire at the age of 31.
His image got sullied due to legal issues that came up, as Microsoft allegedly misused monopoly power to the extent that anti-trust suits were filed. Microsoft’s refusal to allow Netscape access to Windows 95 sparked a long-running antitrust battle with the government, where it was accused of monopolising the web browser market. By 2001 Microsoft had been sued more than 200 times in the US because of monopolistic conduct highlighted by the justice department. Gates genuinely felt this was absurd as Microsoft generated myriads of jobs as well as added wealth to America, in a way reflecting his arrogance. In the hearings and question sessions, he openly stated that the government was only stifling innovation, which would hurt the country.
A major area that Das has written about is the philanthropic work of Gates through the foundation set up in 2008 at a time when he stepped out of Microsoft. The core of the critique here is that the money involved has given the foundation disproportionate power over how public issues and policy are framed. The focus on using technology fixes and absence of democratic accountability affected final outcomes. The book implies based on the sequence of events that getting into philanthropy was a way to change the image of a ruthless capitalist to a saviour of the underprivileged.
An interpretation of his actions has been that the charity has been used as a political tool, taking advantage of tax breaks, besides creating an image for the self. The author writes that in India, Gates has not been apolitical but aligned with the Modi government and some of his programmes did not quite work. Das has a gone a long way to show probably only the darker side of Gates to reveal how billionaires wield their power, manipulate their images, and use philanthropy as a tool to become heroes. In the course of these actions they help repair their damaged reputations while directing policy to derive their preferred outcomes.
The author has written this book after interviewing several people who have worked with Gates. These include both current employees of Microsoft as well as the former staff, besides those from the Gates Foundation. The author also spends several pages on his relationship with his wife as well as Warren Buffett, who was a contributor to the foundation.
Given the title of the book and the implicit bias that will strike the reader continuously in the first few pages, there is little praise for Gates’ achievements as the creator of Microsoft or the good that has come from the work of the foundation. Hence it is a very one-sided view that can only add to prejudice and not a fair evaluation of the persona. A more balanced approach would have been appropriate given that a lot of good has come from Gates. Therefore, the reader should keep this in mind when forming judgments because it does tend to present only the darker side. Some of the titles of the chapters bring out the unconcealed prejudice— ‘why we hate billionaires’ and ‘cancel bill’ or ‘rockstar to robber baron’. However, if one really dislikes billionaires anywhere in the world, then this is a book to pick up and read for reaffirmation!