A close inspection has revealed that there are seven cards that are invariably played every time we move towards the polling booths.
First, the incumbent government extols the economic performance during its term. The UPA has used the Union budget as a propaganda document quite cogently. It is a different matter that coincidentally, the last year of the UPA rule registered the lowest growth with highest inflation (don't be fooled by the near zero WPI number, the CPI is still in double digits), highest fiscal and current account deficit, highest rate of depreciation of the rupee and so on. Ironically the NDA had the best numbers in 2003-04 and yet lost the elections despite the"India Shining" slogan.
The smart politician has told you that India's performance is better than other nations. Besides, the global financial crisis was responsible for these numbers. But the same global upswing did not lead to those good numbers in the first four years. It was the government's policies or rather despite the now infamous wheat mess, telecom muddle, sugar confusion and so on that these achievements were possible. The good numbers are due to them while the bad ones have the foreign hand guiding them.
The second bromide concernsGandhi. Everyone brings back the Mahatma even though his simplicity is in contrast to thewealth of most of our leaders. Today policies have to be capitalist and wealth is their driving force. Yet, we bring back this unknown ideal which is accepted by one and all even though the doctrine is practically defunct today.
Third, the name of Nehru comes in which is synonymous with so-called secularism. Everyone has to be a secularist and all parties talk of secularism and the need to fight communal tendencies even as everyone has his own definition of what the concept is. The BJP on the other hand talks of pseudo-secularism which they say is the brand followed by the other parties which hold different standards for Islam and Hinduism. The BJP's moderates are those who are still apologetic of Ayodhya.
While communalism could invite the wrath of the courts, the same does not apply to casteism, the fourth card played by all parties. We have a right to appeal to your caste, especially if it is a lower one. At this time, everyone is with the Dalit.
Ironically, Mayawati will project Brahmin heavyweights as if to say that she has no prejudices. In rural India, it is always candidates with the same caste that are pitted against each other.
The fifth card relates to the series of alignments that take place. One never knows which parties are aligned with the BJP or the Congress. Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalithaa, Karunanadhi, Omar Abdullah, Ajit Singh, Deve Gowda, Chandrababu Naidu were at some time with the BJP and then with Congress and then with someone else. At times they do not want a foreign PM, and on other occasions she is Mother India.
The sixth card is for the ubiquitous third front -- a group of opportunistic parties which can ensure that no one gets a majority. Individually they stand for anti-industrialisation (communist), pro-industry (TDP) and statue-building (Mayawati). They will then join the government on 'issue- based' grounds. Alternatively, they will stay out and threaten to pull the rug. The CPI and CPM have high nuisance value and should not be aligning with either the BJP or the Congress because their ideals are different. But for the sake of stability they help form a government and then dangle the proverbial sword of Damocles.
Lastly, all parties try and lure voters. While cash and saris is disallowed, promises to reduce taxes are allowed. Soall parties appeal to the middle class with these sops as they are above religion and caste. The shuffle of these cards will tell us which way the tide will go but to see the full hand you have to wait till May 16.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
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