Madan Sabnavis, Economist, CARE Ratingssays there is a strong reason to believe that RBI will not cut rate in
February, as inflation has moved up by factors over which the government
has little control. Excerpts from an interview with ETNOW.
ET Now: It is as much of a shocker for you as it is for everybody with CPI number overshooting the RBI target. Should one assume that a Feb rate cut is completely ruled out?
Madan Sabnavis: Yes, the rate cut is definitely ruled out. In fact, if the number comes over 6 per cent for one or two more times, which is quite possible, one could actually argue for a rate hike. But rate cuts can be kept out of the radar for the time being. The fact that inflation has moved up and it has been caused by factors over which we really have very little control, there is a strong reason for us to believe that there will be a pause by the RBI this time. Of course, there will be the wisdom of the Budget which would have been presented by the time RBI comes up with a review on the repo rate and one should think that those particular numbers would also have a bearing. And more than the numbers, it will be the credibility of the numbers. We really think the government will be able to stick to the fiscal deficit in 2021 and that is the question which is really going to be addressed.
We have seen that even for this particular year, that is FY20, there have been a number of challenges in terms of revenue generation since the tax revenue has not quite gone up. We are still talking in terms of maybe RBI paying an interim dividend to shore up the overall finances. So, a rate pause is more or less given for this particular time, and the interesting thing will be as to how these inflation numbers play out. In January, there would be some kind of cooling down of these numbers because we have seen the prices of onions have come down this month. So, that should probably temper the number for January. Things should be more comfortable from here but we have to watch.
Madan Sabnavis: I would not say it is a Catch 22 situation, because the problem has always been on the demand side and we have been trying to address it on the supply side. RBI has been reducing repo rate and asking banks to bring about an improvement in transmission. Similarly, if you look at all the policies which the finance minister has been announcing, except for the cut in corporate tax rate, most of them have been on the supply side to make sure that things are eased out. But the fundamental problem is on the demand side. There is not much spending taking place. There has to be something done directly on the demand side and that is why all eyes are on the budget to see if any kind of a bold decision is taken to say, look we are not going to stick to this 3 per cent number, we are going to go in for a higher fiscal deficit, channel it in a proper manner to make sure that there are demand forces which are created, which would have backward linkages with the rest of industry and that is how we bring about growth. So that is what we should be looking forward to on 1st February
ET Now: It is as much of a shocker for you as it is for everybody with CPI number overshooting the RBI target. Should one assume that a Feb rate cut is completely ruled out?
Madan Sabnavis: Yes, the rate cut is definitely ruled out. In fact, if the number comes over 6 per cent for one or two more times, which is quite possible, one could actually argue for a rate hike. But rate cuts can be kept out of the radar for the time being. The fact that inflation has moved up and it has been caused by factors over which we really have very little control, there is a strong reason for us to believe that there will be a pause by the RBI this time. Of course, there will be the wisdom of the Budget which would have been presented by the time RBI comes up with a review on the repo rate and one should think that those particular numbers would also have a bearing. And more than the numbers, it will be the credibility of the numbers. We really think the government will be able to stick to the fiscal deficit in 2021 and that is the question which is really going to be addressed.
We have seen that even for this particular year, that is FY20, there have been a number of challenges in terms of revenue generation since the tax revenue has not quite gone up. We are still talking in terms of maybe RBI paying an interim dividend to shore up the overall finances. So, a rate pause is more or less given for this particular time, and the interesting thing will be as to how these inflation numbers play out. In January, there would be some kind of cooling down of these numbers because we have seen the prices of onions have come down this month. So, that should probably temper the number for January. Things should be more comfortable from here but we have to watch.
Madan Sabnavis: I would not say it is a Catch 22 situation, because the problem has always been on the demand side and we have been trying to address it on the supply side. RBI has been reducing repo rate and asking banks to bring about an improvement in transmission. Similarly, if you look at all the policies which the finance minister has been announcing, except for the cut in corporate tax rate, most of them have been on the supply side to make sure that things are eased out. But the fundamental problem is on the demand side. There is not much spending taking place. There has to be something done directly on the demand side and that is why all eyes are on the budget to see if any kind of a bold decision is taken to say, look we are not going to stick to this 3 per cent number, we are going to go in for a higher fiscal deficit, channel it in a proper manner to make sure that there are demand forces which are created, which would have backward linkages with the rest of industry and that is how we bring about growth. So that is what we should be looking forward to on 1st February
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