The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a lot of speculation on how it spreads and can be cured, with various theories being espoused, which has led to a virtual lockdown of the entire world. While the implementation will vary across regions, in general, it can be said that most people are at home and that countries are progressively testing more people for the virus. The carriers could be primary or secondary and so on, and it is logical that the primary set consisted of people who had a travel history and came in touch with those who carried the virus. There would be many who got away and then spread it to others, which is something no one is sure of.
What is attempted here is to look at data as on April 20, and see if there are any trends that emerge on how this virus has affected countries. India is past the ‘we are monitoring closely’ phase. The accompanying graphic shows the total number of cases that exist as on April 20, and looks at three ratios. The first is the number of cases as a proportion of the number of tests carried out. This tells us how many patients were detected by the tests. The second is the mortality rate as the number of deaths as per cases detected. The last is the recovery rate of patients who have been deemed to be out of this disease. These numbers can throw some light on how one can interpret India’s position statistically, which is not backed by any medical thought, but purely as a result of data interpretation. should be interpreted with caution as different countries are at different stages of being affected by the pandemic, and testing operations have begun in a staggered manner. The US, Germany and Russia have tested as many as 3.9 million, 1.7 million and 2.1 million people, respectively, while India has tested around 400,000, which is the highest amongst developing countries. India’s efforts need to be lauded.
Now, based on the cases detected to the numbers tested, India does well at 4.4%, compared with all the countries that have higher number of cases. India ranks 14th in the top-24 list in terms of number of cases, but this ratio signifies that out of those tested, the infected rate is very low, which is heartening. As mentioned earlier, this can be because we have tested more of the primary carriers and not the secondary ones, which can happen only as local authorities intensify testing. As our numbers have been increasing quite sharply by the day with tests being carried out, this proportion can increase, especially so, as these cases are being detected in areas of high population density. But, the pace of testing has increased in the last 10 days and has more than doubled.
The mortality rate is low in India as of now, at 3.2%, which is again heartening and compares well with Germany, Portugal and Austria. It is lower for Turkey and Russia. This ratio is again low compared with double-digit rates in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. As on date, the number is not alarming, and can also be partly attributed to better immunity in our country. In fact, all the countries with higher infected people tend to be from the developed world, with only Turkey and Iran being developing nations. But, climatic conditions are closer to the west than the east.
South Korea, Germany, Austria, Iran, Peru, Spain, Brazil and Switzerland have impressive recovery rates of above 40%, with South Korea, Austria and Iran going past the 70% mark. Again, as our numbers have been increasing of late, the result will be known only in the future, and is currently low at 16%.
Hence, even globally, the progress of patients is quite unsteady, and it is grim in the sense that recoveries are still low, even though some of them have been through a full month’s cycle of the pandemic affliction. China has the most impressive results, with recoveries of over 90% and death rate of just 4%.
The above data gives an idea of how countries have fared as they keep testing more people and taking action of quarantine or hospitalisation. But, the question on everyone’s minds is: When will all this stop? Is there anything that data can tell us about the course of the virus affliction? There is really no way in which data on afflictions, which is based on progressive testing, can be extrapolated for future scenarios, like done with economic data. Yet, there are some interesting trends that can be seen in the movement of new cases being detected in different countries.
The accompanying graphic looks at the last seven days’ data on new cases being reported, and then checks if this trend (if at all) is above what was the peak earlier. If there was no peak earlier, then it means one must wait and watch as the current trend may or may not be the peak level. Some countries do show that the worst could be over as the incremental cases are much lower than the peak established over a period of seven days earlier.
Therefore, the next seven days for India will be crucial, and it is absolutely necessary to keep testing more people who show symptoms—for only then can we know whether it has spread or is under control. The current range of 1,200-2,000 has been due to more testing being done, and as it is still in the initial phases, the mortality and recovery rates are not as firm as those of European countries that have been through a whole month of spread. The US looks convincing, given the large numbers that have been tested.
The clue is to identify and isolate the cases so as to treat the patients and ensure that the virus does not spread. The proactive steps of the government have helped a lot in controlling the spread in India, but the next seven days will be crucial as it will set a new trend.
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