Since the war began, global stock indices have behaved differentially. The Sensex surely has gone down from 81,287 to 75,415 between February 27 and May 22. This could give a signal that the Indian market has underperformed; however, US indices S&P 500 and DJI have gone up while the NYSE Composite is marginally down. Nikkei is up significantly while FTSE is down. German (DAX 40) and French (CAC 40) indices are down. So is the case with Brazil (IBOVESPA). But Korean KOSPI has done brilliantly while Singapore (STI) has trudged in the positive zone. Hang Seng of Hong Kong is down, as is the Shanghai Composite. Therefore, our market is not an outlier.
Yet it has been seen that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are in a withdrawal mode. Since March 1, they have pulled out $23.75 billion from the Indian market (equity and debt) while in the corresponding preceding 51 sessions, they withdrew $1.25 billion. The former included around $21 billion in equity and the balance in debt and hybrid. Interestingly, for the 51 days prior to the war, equity withdrawal was at $22.75 billion, with debt being positive.
Thus, the FPIs have been withdrawing funds from the equity segment even before the war began, which means it is a continuation of an earlier trend. The war has only maintained this tendency. However, in debt it was positive though marginal, which turned negative once the war began. An explanation can be conjectured here.
Decoding Herd Mentality
On the equity front, the FPIs have been bearish about Indian markets. It should be remembered that FPIs consists of myriad investors who are registered with Sebi and not a single entity. Therefore, the joint action can be taken to be some kind of group-think where decisions are taken based on a common line of thinking. One reason is the belief that some of the major stocks and sectors may be overvalued with very high private equity ratios. Generally, ratios above 30 denote overvaluation, less than 20 reflect opportunity, while the range of 20-30 could go either way.
The NIFTY pharma, FMCG, and consumption indices show ratios of ~35. It is 30 for auto, while it is less than 15 for banks, making them attractive. Here, the clue is corporate profitability. Growth in sales and profits has tended to be more in the single digit range, which indicates stability at best. This needs to change for the valuations to be justified or else, theoretically, the prices would have to correct over a time period.
The issue with stocks being considered to be overvalued is twofold. First, it makes sense for investors to exit as the upside seems limited. In fact, with the Sensex exhibiting higher volatility, it is a sign that the best is over for the time being until there is more buoyancy in the performance. The annualised daily volatility since the war began increased to 21.6% for these 50-odd sessions compared with 11.6% in the earlier period. Second, for new investment to flow, a wait and watch approach would be taken, following which a fresh round of investment would begin.
As mentioned earlier, some markets have shown remarkable resilience during these times, and investors would probably be moving their funds from markets like India, Brazil, etc. to the US, which has witnessed a general upward movement. It must be noted that ever since the central banks have been pursuing quantitative tightening, the quantum of investible funds has come down considerably. Hence, funds are being reallocated as investors search for opportunities in a wider set of markets.
Coming to the war, India’s market performance could be making FPIs cautious.
The high dependence on imported crude oil makes the trade balance jittery. While real growth is less of a concern, the issue with rupee depreciation is a consideration. The fact that the rupee is moving down lowers purchases and enhances sales, leading to net outflows. This in turn, feeds back to the currency strength as the rupee tends to be affected perversely, thus justifying the view that real returns would be weak. This is a tough nut to crack from the policy point of view.
How about debt? Ever since the war began, the bond markets have been in a different mood. Higher crude prices cause higher inflation across the world. This means that interest rates will no longer be lowered. Kevin Warsh’s appointment as chairman of the Federal Reserve was supposed to be associated with lowering of rates, which is what Donald Trump wanted. The last policy was cautious on rates. Now there is talk of rates being increased rather than lowered as inflation increases. This has pushed up bond yields. While Indian bond yields too have climbed up to cross 7% for 10 years’ maturity, there is a case of investors weighing the net return where the currency decline comes into play.
Therefore, FPIs will continue to be unpredictable in the next few months. They cannot be considered as a source of long-term capital when working out the options for closing the current account deficit gap. As long as they do not accelerate their withdrawal, it could be steady news. But the declining rupee is definitely a consideration for them as the real value gets affected.
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