The foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been in a withdrawal mode this year. One of the reasons which has been given is the system of taxation where returns become less competitive when compared with other markets.
This has been addressed well by the government by exempting interest earned on GSecs holding from tax as well as removing any capital gains tax on GSecs. This is a big positive step that has been supplemented by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which now allows them to invest under the FAR regulation in securities of over 10 years duration.
The important question is whether or not there will there be an about turn in the flow of funds in the debt segment? This is something which will be tested in the coming months. Prima facie, the tax rates of 20% on earnings in interest or capital gains meant erosion in real return. The prevailing thought process earlier was to have some kind of a level playing field for investors from both the domestic and foreign sections.
However, this could have militated against such investment, especially so considering that investors have been looking at other emerging markets and comparing returns. A declining rupee already lowered effective return that was compounded by the tax rate. This correction should make GSecs valuable again for investors.
It must be pointed out that our GSecs are now part of global bond indices, which means that all such policies matter as investors keep rebalancing their portfolio depending on effective returns. Often investment in indices is complemented by separate investments in the Indian market to take advantage of any arbitrage opportunities. The nominal returns on bonds are fixed by the market over which no one has control. The same holds for currency movement that is determined outside the system. What we can control is the system of incentives available for investors. The government intervention here is hence pragmatic as it plugs a gap.
With interest rates poised to rise across the world, the bond returns would be one of the clinching factors. The decision taken by the Fed in the upcoming meeting will hold the clue to the direction of interest rates in the US under the new Chairman.
The next few months will test the efficacy of these measures as there has been a long standing demand for withdrawal of the withholding tax on FPI earnings in the debt segment.
With the present measures being invoked all returns – interest and capital gains are not subjected to any tax. In parallel the RBI has also enabled them to invest in bonds of maturities higher than 10 years as well as in fresh issuances of paper. All this should boost inflows. But ‘how much’ is the question?
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